PENDLE 6.23 complete review + latest market outlook prediction

Analysis time: 2026.06.26 20:46
Current price: 1.218 USDT
24-hour data: drop 5.21%, trading volume 3.2056 million USDT, intraday range 1.195-1.297

I. Review and verification of 6.23 views

1. Core trend judgment fully realized
Original text stated: Not a strong reversal, only a low-level weak pullback; if it cannot return above 1.346~1.400, all rebounds are treated as weak repairs. Current price 1.218 has significantly broken the short-term defense line 1.286, bearish path B has become reality, and the bullish repair scenario has completely failed.
2. All key supports broken
The original short-term lifeline 1.286 has been effectively broken, and the price has fallen to the 1.220~1.250 range as expected. Intraday low 1.195 touched the buffer zone above 1.166~1.150. The previously given short-term resistance 1.346~1.400 has been suppressing throughout, with rebounds too weak to reach that range.
3. Multi-cycle technical signals all matched predictions
Original 1h, 4h, daily all bearish-led, MACD persistently underwater, red bars expanding; currently 4h, daily Bollinger Bands continue downward, price running near the lower Bollinger band, bearish momentum not yet fully released. Large-cycle weekly and monthly are weak at lows, logic unchanged, combined with protocol TVL and revenue data continuing to weaken, lacking fundamental capital support.
4. Operation strategy review verification
Original clearly stated: if it breaks 1.286, prioritize avoiding the 1.220~1.250 risk; heavy positions need to be reduced; do not chase rebounds. Those who did not timely reduce/stop-loss positions saw significantly expanded floating losses. Users who strictly executed risk control and exited in batches avoided this second round of decline.

II. Current multi-cycle market status

1-hour short-term cycle
1h Bollinger range 1.206-1.324, current price 1.218 close to lower Bollinger band. MACD double lines converging near zero axis. There is a small oversold repair demand in the short term. The first resistance above is Bollinger middle band 1.265, strong resistance 1.324. If rebound volume is low, repair space is extremely limited. Immediate support below is 1.195; if broken, directly test 1.166.

4-hour swing cycle
4h Bollinger middle band 1.265 continues to exert pressure, overall bearish channel complete, descending stepwise from high 1.539. 1.286 support has turned into long-term resistance. Above, 1.346~1.400 has a large accumulation of trapped positions; without volume influx, the 4-hour weakness cannot be reversed.

Daily/Weekly long-term cycle
Daily Bollinger middle band 1.348 far from current price, medium-term downtrend formed. Daily MACD remains in bearish zone. Weekly long-term low consolidation box 0.969-1.862. Large-level bottom logic not damaged, but short-term capital and business data weakening suppress rebound height. Monthly continues long-term decline from high 7.538, still in large-level adjustment cycle.

III. Sub-cycle market outlook predictions

Short-term 1-3 trading days
Core oscillation range 1.166~1.265, two divergent paths:
1. Weak repair path (medium probability): relying on low 1.195 for a slight rebound, testing 1.260~1.265 Bollinger middle band pressure, then falling back with low volume, maintaining low-level grinding.
2. Deep decline path (relatively higher probability): effectively break support 1.195, bearish volume expands to test daily core defense 1.166~1.150, extreme scenario touches previous bottom 0.969.

Medium-term 1-4 weeks
1. Stabilization and repair path: Major BTC stabilizes, DeFi sector capital returns. PENDLE breaks above 1.400 with volume, opening repair space to 1.475~1.503. Trend confirmation requires standing above 1.539.
2. Continued weakening path: Major continues downward, protocol TVL and fees continue to shrink, oscillating in bottom box 0.969~1.346 for a long time, each rebound height limited.

Long-term monthly level
Deep range 0.90~1.15 not broken, long-term low-level positioning logic remains. Only when price firmly stands above 1.475 and protocol business data recovers simultaneously can medium-term trend turn strong. If effectively breaks below previous low 0.969, large-level adjustment cycle greatly extended.

IV. Spot operation practical plans

1. For holders: at current price 1.218, sell in batches at 1.260~1.265 range to reduce risk. Ultimate defense line 1.150; if daily closes below that for consecutive days, all short-term positions exit. Do not hold through deep drawdown.
2. For non-holders: do not buy at current price to bet on reversal. Aggressive only minimal position trial at 1.166~1.195, stop-loss 1.150. Conservative wait for volume-based confirmation of standing above 1.400 on the right side, or buy in batches near 0.969.
3. Risk control red line: currently bearish-led, fundamental data weakening, single coin position not exceed 12% of total assets. Only operate spot, stay away from contract leverage. After breaking 1.150, reassess holding logic, avoid heavy position holding.

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