Made at the top of the mountain: This ETH pullback is the result of a three-way collapse in the macro environment, liquidity conditions, and market confidence that resonated together:

🔍 Macro “valuation kill”: rate-hike expectations reversed; non-yielding assets under pressure

This is the core driving force. The Fed’s June dot plot made a sharp pivot: nearly half of FOMC members predict rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market’s prior expectations of rate cuts. Chair Warsh reiterated that there is “no rush to cut rates,” and the market quickly priced the probability of 25 bps rate hikes in September and December rising to 89%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose above 101.8, hitting a new 12-month high; meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stayed at or above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin’s opportunity cost of holding has surged, and during this round of decline, it has not shown the “digital gold” safe-haven attribute. Instead, it has fallen in close sync with risk assets such as the Nasdaq.
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