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-- This year's U.S. stock market sentiment has never been so divided? Where do we go from here?
-- Two days ago, I regretted not making enough on Micron; today, I regret making too much. What does the market actually want?
Just now, while scrolling through Twitter, I saw someone write: Two days ago, the market worried that memory companies weren't making enough; today, it complains they're making too much.
That one sentence sums up the market movements of the past three days.
On Monday and Tuesday, memory stocks crashed, SK Hynix hit circuit breakers, Micron dropped 13%, and Twitter was full of people calling the peak of memory. The reasoning: fear they wouldn't make money, poor earnings, a looming correction, and the end of the cycle.
On Wednesday, Micron delivered its strongest earnings report in history, proving it wasn't just making money—it was making more than anyone expected. It rose 15% after hours.
Then on Thursday, Apple suddenly announced price hikes of 15-25% across its Mac and iPad lineup. The reason? DRAM and NAND costs were too high to bear.
Microsoft followed, announcing Xbox price increases of $100-$150, also citing memory costs.
The market flipped in an instant.
The day before, everyone was celebrating Micron's massive profits; today, seeing Apple's price hikes, they suddenly realized: Wait a second—who is Micron's high profit coming from?
It's coming from Apple, from Microsoft, and ultimately from consumers buying iPhones, iPads, and Xboxes.
So the fear shifted from "it's not making enough" to "it's making too much, and downstream can't take it anymore."
Micron rallied for a day and then started giving back gains, dragging the memory sector down with it.
Apple dropped 6% in a single day, its biggest decline in over a year. The Nasdaq fell for the fourth straight day.
In my years trading U.S. stocks, I've seen the market flip many times, but rarely this fast and this thoroughly.
Within 72 hours, the same group of people gave completely opposite judgments on the same industry. And both judgments were based on the exact same thing: memory chip prices going up.
For upstream, price hikes are profit; for downstream, they are costs.
Two sides of the same coin. Two days ago, the market only saw the front; today it flipped to the back and panicked...
Ben, what do you think about this? Let's talk about it in the next one.