III. Trend Judgment by Timeframe

1. Short-term (1–7 days, this week)

Overall biased bearish oscillation, prone to declines rather than gains.

- Likely to weakly grind bottom in the range of 58500–61500 (BTC) and 1500–1650 (ETH)

- Two scenarios:
① Holding the 59000 support → oversold low-volume rebound, a technical repair with limited upside, difficult to break 62000
② Effectively breaking below 58500 → opening downside space, looking at the 55000–57000 range for a second bottom

- ETH follows BTC's lead, difficult to form an independent trend. Only after BTC stabilizes will ETH undergo passive repair.

2. Medium-term (1–3 months, July–September)

A trend reversal requires two core conditions to be met simultaneously:

1. The Fed releases a clear signal of rate cuts, and U.S. bond yields peak and decline
2. BTC regains volume and stabilizes above $65,000, with the daily structure restoring a bullish bias

Before this, the medium-term maintains an oscillating bottom-seeking pattern, requiring repeated grinding to confirm the bottom.
Relative strength: BTC's resilience > ETH. During the bear market adjustment period, BTC's market cap share rises, as funds defensively flock to Bitcoin.

3. Long-term (major cycle in H2)

The long-term core logic still revolves around the Fed's liquidity cycle:

- If the Fed starts a rate-cutting cycle in Q3, global liquidity easing resumes, and BTC may usher in a new round of institutional rally.
- If high interest rates persist through year-end, the crypto market will continue with weak oscillations, and the major upward cycle will be postponed.

IV. Comparison of Strength: BTC vs ETH

1. BTC (Big饼): Stronger digital gold properties, combining safe-haven and liquidity advantages, better absorption during declines, serving as the market's "broad market index"

2. ETH (二饼): Benchmarked in public chains, DeFi, and NFT sectors, with higher risk attributes, a growth sector target. Its liquidity depends on bullish incremental capital, with larger corrections and lagging rebounds during bear markets.

3. Trading ratio: The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, indicating extremely low risk appetite in the current market, as funds are unwilling to allocate to sector tokens.