Tonight, I discovered a very dangerous change in the market.

It’s not that BTC dropped,
but that everyone’s definition of "bottom" changed three times in one day.
This morning:
Many people said 62,000 was the bottom.
By afternoon:
It became 60,000.
By evening:
59,000.
Some have even started discussing 50,000.
The price is falling.
Emotions are falling even faster.
Tonight, BTC hit a low near 58,100.
24-hour trading volume has clearly expanded.
24-hour liquidations exceeded $600 million.
OI has increased by nearly 92% again.
But what I’m watching most closely
isn’t these numbers.
It’s this:
Retail investors are still constantly searching for a new "bottom."
After the sharp drop just now, flipping through today’s discussion records from participating friends is really interesting.
This morning, they were discussing:
"Can we buy the dip at 62,000?"
By evening, it turned into:
"Is 59,000 the last drop?"
The biggest change in the market
isn’t the price.
It’s this:
Everyone is starting to rush to prove they are right.
I actually think
the true bottom
has never been guessed.
It’s bought back in with capital.
If ETF capital continues to flow out.
If volume is just panic-driven expansion.
If OI continues to increase,
it means capital is still in a tug-of-war.
The real large-scale trend
might not be over yet.
From the chart:
4-hour:
Still maintaining a bearish structure.
1-hour:
After breaking below key moving averages,
the rebound is very weak.
15-minute:
A quick spike to 58,100,
followed by some repair.
But for now,
it looks more like an oversold bounce,
not a trend reversal.
At least,
I still haven’t seen enough large capital returning.
Tonight, I won’t guess:
Is 59,000 the bottom?
I prefer to observe three things:
① Whether the 59,000 level can hold.
② Whether 60,000 can be firmly reclaimed.
③ Whether ETF capital flows have improved.
If these three conditions don’t change,
I’d rather keep waiting.
The biggest risk today
isn’t that BTC dropped.
It’s that more and more people
are rushing to buy the dip.
The biggest advantage in trading
has never been buying the lowest.
It’s this:
Before a real opportunity appears, you still have capital left on the table.
Tonight,
I choose to remain patient.
What about you?