Based on the latest market data as of June 26, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is at a very critical technical level: the price is around $1,520, repeatedly contesting the $1,500 integer mark.

Current Market Profile: Key Support Battle Under Bearish Dominance

· Technical pressure across the board: ETH price is suppressed by all major moving averages, forming a bearish arrangement. $1,600 has turned from support into strong resistance, and $1,575 is the short-term bull-bear divide.
· Market sentiment extremely pessimistic: The Fear & Greed Index is in "extreme fear." Additionally, today (June 26), $10.6 billion in quarterly options expire, combined with continued ETF outflows, potentially causing extreme market volatility.
· Capital flight trend unchanged: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a nearly two-year low, indicating sustained capital flow from Ethereum to Bitcoin or stablecoins.

Core Trading Strategy: The "Watershed" Around $1,500

Bullish Rebound Strategy (Betting on Oversold Recovery)

· Entry range: Around $1,500 - $1,535 (requires a stop-loss signal on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart, such as a high-volume long lower shadow).
· Stop loss: Strictly set below $1,495 (exit decisively if the candlestick closes below).
· Targets: First target $1,575, second target $1,620.
· Core logic: $1,500 is a support area tested multiple times recently, and the RSI has entered oversold territory (around 30-38), providing conditions for a technical rebound. Moreover, a double-bottom pattern is forming at this level.

Bearish Breakout Strategy (Trend-Following Short)

· Entry condition: If the daily or 4-hour candlestick closes below $1,495, enter a small position.
· Stop loss: Place above $1,520.
· Target: $1,420, then further to the $1,350-$1,400 range.
· Core logic: In a bearish trend, a key support breakdown often triggers cascading liquidations. If the price rebounds first, consider shorting at the $1,560-$1,590 resistance zone on low volume.

Risk Control and Key Observation Points

· First principle: Current contrarian bottom-fishing carries extremely high risk. Be sure to trade with small positions and stop losses. Today is options expiration day, with the highest volatility expected around the U.S. market open (10 PM Beijing time). It is recommended to reduce leverage and observe more while trading less.
· Key monitoring: Closely observe the effectiveness of the $1,500 support (whether high-volume stabilization occurs), as well as Bitcoin's correlation (ETH typically amplifies BTC's volatility). Also, watch for reversal signals such as a "4-hour MACD divergence."

In summary, $1,500 is the current decisive battleground for bulls and bears. Until the price clearly reclaims $1,600, the overall strategy remains focused on shorting on rallies or quick in-and-out trades at support levels. Do not easily call a bottom. #以太坊 #比特币