As of June 26, BTC is trading in a range around $59,800 (24h -1.6%). Last night, it briefly pierced down to $58,000, hitting a nearly two-year low. It has officially broken below the $60k “bull-bear boundary line” and the 200-week moving average, and the market has entered a deep adjustment period.

📉 Current situation: triple-pressure resonance

- Tight macro: hawkish Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations (a possible rate hike in 2026) + a strong US dollar. With BTC as a non-yielding asset under pressure, tonight’s US core PCE data is the decisive factor in the short term.
- Funds retreat: spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for 6 consecutive weeks (cumulative over $5.9 billion). Institutions are taking profits. The “issue debt to buy coins” model at Strategy (formerly MSTR) is facing scrutiny, and buying power has dried up.
- Derivatives explode: today, approximately $10 billion in quarterly options expire (Deribit). A large number of out-of-the-money call options become worthless. Market makers’ hedging amplifies volatility. Across the whole network, total liquidations in 24h exceed $1 billion, and the longs are hit severely.

Sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index drops to 12 (extreme fear). RSI is oversold (~26-35). Technically, there is a need for a rebound, but no reversal yet.

📊 Key technical points

- Support: $58,000 in the short term (last night’s low). Stronger support at $55,000, and deeper support at $52k-$54k (if $58k breaks).
- Resistance: $60k (once broken, turns into strong resistance) → $61k-$62.5k (first rebound target) → $64k (strong overhead pressure).
- Pattern: bearish alignment of daily moving averages (50/200-day moving averages suppress price), and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands open downward. This is an oversold rebound correction within a downtrend, not a reversal.

🧭 Outlook

- Short term (today/tomorrow): options expiration + thin liquidity → high-volatility range trading. If the PCE data is mild, a weak rebound may test $60k-$61k. If the data runs too hot, the market may probe down to $57k-$55k. Overall: weak range trading / a second bottom test.
- Medium term (1-4 weeks): below $60k needs to “grind out a bottom.” Price may oscillate in a wide range around $55k-$62k , waiting for ETF inflows or a macro shift. The 200-week moving average ($62k-$63k) is the bull-bear dividing line.
- Extreme risk: if $58k breaks on increasing volume with no follow-through support, it could accelerate to $52k-$54k, and even panic selling could dump to below $50k (bearish tail risk as viewed by institutions).

⚠️ Trading ideas (not investment advice)

- Spot: heavy-position holders should not blindly cut losses at the bottom (extreme fear ≠ a bottom-calling signal). Light-position holders should strictly control their position sizing. Don’t rush to catch a falling knife. Wait for $55k-$58k to stabilize with reduced volume, then build positions in batches from the left side. On the right side, wait until price returns to $62k and holds to confirm.
- Contracts: high volatility easily leads to wicks and liquidation. Stay mainly on the sidelines. For ultra-short-term trades, use a light position with strict stop-losses to catch rebounds, and avoid holding losing positions against the move.
- Focus: tonight’s PCE data, weekly ETF fund flows, US stock market Nasdaq (tech/AI “bleeding” dynamics), and developments from Strategy.

The crypto market is extremely risky. The above is an objective market review only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR (do your own research). Never go all-in.