History repeats itself! Five technological revolutions have massacred retail investors. How long can your $BTC hold out before the AI bubble bursts?

Bro, you're holding $BTC or $ETH, staring at those doubled coins in the AI track, and wondering: Is this wave a real bull or just a rug pull?

Don't rush. Let's stretch the timeline to 250 years and see how five technological revolutions played retail investors. There's an institutional research report that uses Carlota Perez's theory to break down five cycles from 1771 to now—spinning machines, steam railways, steel electricity, automobile oil, and the internet. Each cycle lasts about 50 years, divided into three phases: the installation period, the turning point, and the deployment period.

The core conclusion is just one sentence: K-shaped divergence is the iron law of technological revolutions, not an accident. In every installation period, the three dimensions of industry, stock market, and income will inevitably split, and they won't converge until the bubble clears. Capital always skims off the tech dividends first.

Take the first spinning machine revolution. From 1770 to 1790, the construction, pig iron, and coal industries grew at terrifying rates: 3.33%, 2.98%, and 2.38% respectively. But traditional food industries were only at 0.59%, and wool textiles at 0.77%. By 1821, the output of metal minerals had increased eightfold, while traditional handicrafts barely moved.

The distribution of money was even worse. From 1759 to 1846, the per capita income of the emerging bourgeoisie rose from 14.74 times the subsistence income to 32.43 times; the worker group dropped from 4.39 times to 4.37 times. Society's average wealth was rising, but the absolute income of bottom-tier workers didn't budge. This is called "Engels' Pause"—all tech dividends were swallowed by capital.

Stock market divergence was similar every time. From 1843 to 1845, UK railway stocks surged, with the index going from 1000 to 1985, while non-railway stocks were only at 1152. In 1845, the Irish famine forced the central bank to raise interest rates, railway stocks crashed to 857, but non-railway stocks actually rose to 1042, reversing the divergence.

After 1895, US stocks saw mining, electrical, and utilities up over 100%, while traditional sectors lagged. In the 1920s, electrical equipment rose 540% in five years, automobiles and trucks rose 177%, textiles only 26%, and transportation even fell 21%. From 1995 to 2000, the Nasdaq rose 629%, while the Dow only rose 285%.

When wealth inequality reaches its extreme, society inevitably explodes. The 1811 Luddite movement smashed machines, and in 1844 Marx wrote "Capital." On the eve of the Great Depression in 1929, the top 1% in the US controlled 48.7% of net wealth, while the middle 40% dropped from 20.3% to 12.6%. Before the internet bubble, the top 1% of household wealth rose from 22.8% to 26.8%, while the bottom 50% fell from 3.6% to 3.2%.

When does divergence narrow? Only after the bubble bursts and the system is restructured. In 2000, the Nasdaq crashed, countless .com companies went bankrupt, and Cisco fell 80%. But it was precisely this clearing that allowed the technology to truly reach the masses.

Now look at the AI market. Think carefully. The same installation period, the same dominance of financial capital, the same scissors gap between old and new industries. History doesn't repeat itself exactly, but the rhymes are strikingly similar. Have you thought through your position?

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