The most counterintuitive phenomenon this week: gold and Bitcoin falling together.

Previously, these two were "inflation hedges that rise and fall together," but this week reality slapped them in the face — gold price dropped from 5600 to 4010, -28%; BTC broke through 59K intraday last night, with $1 billion in liquidations. On the surface, it's the "dollar + real interest rate" narrative, but I think there's something deeper behind it:

When expectations of the AI capex story collapsing heat up, the first thing liquidity cuts is non-profitable assets.

Gold has no cash flow, BTC has no profit, and unprofitable SaaS small-caps in the Nasdaq have also taken a hit. The market isn't saying "inflation is back" — it's saying "Under the triple pressure of inflation, tightening, and the possible peak of the AI bubble, I'll first throw away anything uncertain."

This is also why "AI water sellers" like MU, NVDA, and TSMC are hitting new highs instead. Capital is flowing to places with real orders and real gross margins.

The alpha in the second half is increasingly resembling the 2018–2019 period — a major divergence within TMT.

‍#黄金 #比特币 #NVDA