On June 26, a CICC research report said that since March, gold prices have been continuously adjusting. International gold prices once fell below $4,000 per ounce, a pullback of more than 25% from the early-March high of $5,321 per ounce. This was mainly driven by two factors:

First, the US-Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices and inflation. The market is concerned that US inflation remains resilient, creating expectations of tighter monetary policy. Second, at the June FOMC meeting, “Walsh’s debut” was interpreted as hawkish, further intensifying concerns about monetary tightening: Walsh emphasized inflation discipline, upwardly revised inflation expectations on the dot plot, and among the 18 voting members, half supported at least one rate hike within the year.

The current market narrative holds that the Federal Reserve’s policy focus is “controlling inflation.” The futures market has already priced in one rate hike each in 2026 and 2027, to restore confidence in the US dollar. A stronger US dollar is suppressing gold.

Regarding the two logics above, we believe it is not appropriate to extrapolate linearly. US inflation may have already peaked, and the second half of the year may enter a downward channel. Walsh’s debut also does not mean the Federal Reserve has completely shifted toward tightening; the current stance may be to leave room for future policies to return to easing. Therefore, this round of gold pullback is not the end of the bull market, and a turnaround may not be far off. We remain optimistic about gold’s outlook. It is recommended to maintain positions, buy on dips, and wait for the turnaround. #BTC下探60000美元关键关口