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Going to sleep now. I partially reduced my positions on the BTC, ETH, BNB, BCH, and DOGE spot that I bought yesterday and the day before when it broke below 60050, keeping a base position. There should still be some room for a bounce here, with overhead resistance zones at 602~603 and 606-608. The bottom-fishing trapped a group of people. I can't see any sign of a morning wick on the daily chart right now. I reduced positions because I'll wake up around 3-4 PM, and I'm not sure if there will be another retest after midnight. Reducing allows me to sleep without worry.
Trading spot against the trend these past couple of days has been a bit tough. Hesitating even slightly on reducing positions leads to big pullbacks 😂 (for example, DOGE—I hesitated at 0.0707 last night and it immediately dropped back to 0.0718, basically wasting all the gains 😂). If I hadn't hesitated on catching those wicks over the past few days, I would have already taken three trades... So being too greedy on valuation doesn't always get "rewarded"; you still need to consider entry timing.
Let's review historical movements: 2024.7.5, 7.8, 2024.8.5, 2024.10.4, 2024.11.4, 2025.2.3—these seem to be declines occurring in the first half or early in the month, often becoming the "iron bottom" for that month. Declines at the end of the month, however, are usually not the short-term bottom... This is also an important reason why I haven't dared to go all-in on spot bottom-fishing.
Of course, for short-term traders, there's no need to overthink this. If there's a short-term oversold condition, and a 5M candle closes bullish or the candle forms a wick, you enter and take a quick oversold bounce wick exit. No matter how the market moves, it doesn't affect intraday trades.
There are still 55 minutes left. I don't know if the 8:00 candle will close above 600. I'm not going to stay up and watch. Since I've already reduced my position, I'll just go to sleep peacefully and check in the afternoon whether it's a pleasant surprise or a shock.
We cannot stay below 600 for an extended period (more than 2 days); otherwise, the bottom we caught last night will probably not hold as a bottom...