#BTCProbes60KKeySupportLevel The “4-year cycle” theory, long accepted in crypto markets, is frequently questioned by investors in every bull or bear season. In its latest report, popular analytics firm The DeFi Report examined why Bitcoin persistently follows this 4-year timeline and why the market continues to misinterpret this cycle.

One of the report’s strongest takeaways was that ignoring market cycles repeatedly leads investors into error. It was noted that those who said “This time is different because institutional capital has come in” during bull markets or “Bitcoin is dead; everything was a Ponzi scheme” during bear markets have been wrong four times in a row in the past.

According to experts, the 4-year cycle is not an arbitrary timeline; it is a natural financial process formed by the combination of human psychology, media attention, incentives, and most importantly, credit and leverage mechanisms.

In the analysis, Realized Cap data was presented as a key indicator for understanding Bitcoin’s price floor. It stated that the capital base—made up of the net amount of money effectively injected into the network—is currently at approximately $1.1 trillion.

The market value’s upside divergence from this base is formed by leverage, DeFi loans, and speculation (premium). It was stated that in the current bear market, these premiums have largely eroded and the price is being pulled toward the capital base.

It was added that because Bitcoin does not have a “book value” like a traditional stock that generates cash flow, this realized cost base forms the most reliable support/floor level during bear markets.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE