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#BTC下探60000美元关键关口 On June 25, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the key psychological level of $60,000, hitting a low of $59,023, marking a new bottom since October 2024. This is the third time since the beginning of 2026 that Bitcoin has lost the $60,000 level. The total cryptocurrency market cap also fell to around $2 trillion.
This decline is the result of a combined collapse of three factors: macro, capital flows, and market confidence.
🔍 Macro "kills valuation": Rate hike expectations reverse, non-yielding assets under pressure
This is the core driver. The Fed's June dot plot shifted strongly, with nearly half of FOMC members predicting a rate hike in 2026, completely opposite to the market's previous expectations of rate cuts. Chair Walsh emphasized "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in a 25 basis point hike probability of 89% for September and December. The US Dollar Index exceeded 101.8, hitting a 12-month high, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. Bitcoin, as a non-yielding asset, saw its holding opportunity cost surge, and in this decline it did not exhibit safe-haven properties like "digital gold," but instead fell in tandem with risk assets such as the Nasdaq.
💸 Capital flows "great retreat": ETF records record outflows, institutions "vote with their feet"
Capital is being systematically drained. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced the longest net outflow streak in history, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks, and a 30-day net outflow value of up to $6.35 billion, setting a record. Total assets under management fell from around $113 billion at the start of the year to about $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has been consistently negative, indicating extremely weak buying demand from US investors.
🏦 Confidence "breached": Largest buyer "under suspicion," retail investors leave en masse
The biggest story in the market comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest institutional buyer (holding approximately 847,000 BTC), they recently purchased only 520 BTC (the smallest weekly purchase volume in 18 months), and the stock price fell to its lowest since February 2024. The market is beginning to doubt whether their "issuing bonds to buy coins" model can be sustained. Meanwhile, many retail investors who bought at high prices are suffering losses, with little appetite to increase positions, and attention has shifted to AI concept stocks.
⚙️ Leverage "cascading blowups": Liquidation wave amplifies downward spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market has become an "amplifier" for the decline. After a total of approximately $850 million in crypto long positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180,000 people in the crypto community have been wiped out in the past 24 hours, with total losses reaching $984 million. After the price broke through the $60,000 level, near $59,000 it triggered continuous long liquidations, with passive sell orders driving prices down faster. Additionally, approximately $10 billion worth of Bitcoin option contracts expiring this weekend have increased market volatility.
📉 Technical: Sellers dominate, key supports broken
Technically, the daily moving average system is all aligned downward. The $60,000 level has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. Regarding key price levels, above the $61,400-$61,800 zone is short-term strong resistance; below, if the $60,000 level is confirmed lost, the area near $57,000 is the next on-chain concentration zone for liquidations, and in extreme cases could even drop to the $50,000-$55,000 zone.
⏳ Short-term focus: PCE data could be the "deciding factor"
The market's short-term focus is highly concentrated on the US May core CPI data to be released tonight (June 25). If the data exceeds expectations, it will reinforce rate hike expectations and could push BTC down to $57,000-$55,000; if the data cools, it could provide an opportunity for a recovery after overselling.
This decline is a concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital withdrawal, loosening of the core narrative, and high-leverage liquidations. The key support level of $60,000 over the past two years is wavering. The market is in a "buyerless market," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" or a "lifeline" for longs.
This downturn is the result of a triple collapse in macroeconomic conditions, capital flows, and market confidence:
🔍 Macro "Valuation Kill": Rate Hike Expectations Reverse, Non-Yielding Assets Under Pressure
This is the core driving force. The Fed's June dot plot took a sharp turn, with nearly half of FOMC members predicting rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market's previously anticipated rate cuts. Chairman Warsh reiterated "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in a 89% probability of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December. The US dollar index rose above 101.8 to a 12-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin has surged dramatically, and instead of displaying the safe-haven properties of "digital gold," it has correlated closely with risk assets like the Nasdaq in this decline.
💸 Capital "Great Withdrawal": ETFs See Record Outflows, Institutions Vote with Their Feet
Systematic bleeding in capital flow. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their longest-ever net outflow period, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks. Net redemptions within 30 days reached a record $6.35 billion. Total assets under management have dropped from about $113 billion at the start of the year to approximately $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buying interest from US investors.
🏦 Confidence "Shattered": Biggest Buyer Questioned, Retail Investors Flee
The biggest narrative shift comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding around 847k BTC), it recently purchased only 520 BTC, its smallest weekly purchase in 18 months. Its stock price fell to its lowest point since February 2024. The market is beginning to question whether its "issue bonds to buy Bitcoin" flywheel model is sustainable. Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors who bought in at high prices are in loss positions, with extremely low willingness to add positions, turning their attention to AI concept stocks.
⚙ Leverage "Cascading Liquidations": Clearing Wave Accelerates Downward Spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market acted as an "amplifier" for the decline. After approximately $850 million in long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180k people in the crypto space were liquidated in the last 24 hours, amounting to $984 million. Once prices broke through $60k, sustained long liquidation occurred near $59k, with passive sell orders accelerating the decline. Additionally, the quarterly expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options on Friday amplified market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears Dominate, Key Support Broken
Technically, the daily moving average system is all arranged in a bearish pattern. The $60k level has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. Key levels: The $61,400-$61,800 area is short-term strong resistance above. Below, if $60k is confirmed lost, $57,000 is the next on-chain dense liquidation zone, and in extreme cases, it could even test the $50,000-$55,000 range.
⏳ Short-Term Focus: PCE Data Could Be the "Deciding Factor"
Market attention is highly concentrated on tonight (June 25) when the US core PCE price index for May is released. If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, potentially pushing BTC down to $57,000-$55,000. If the data cools, it could offer an oversold rebound opportunity.
This decline is a concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital exit, core narrative weakening, and high-leverage liquidation. The $60,000 level, a key support over the past two years, is now precarious. The market is in a "no-buyer market," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a lifeline for the bulls.