The distribution of Bitcoin's deviations from its long-run power-law trend — and where we sit in it today.

Fit the deviations (log-price minus the trend; n=5.65, R² 0.96, Aug 2010 → today). They are right-skewed: skewness +0.84. So price is not log-normal around the trend.
A normal fit fails on both tails — it overstates the floor and understates the bubble tail. A skew-normal fits cleanly (KS 0.047 vs 0.091; a large AIC gap), and the Q–Q confirms it: the normal bends away at both ends, the skew-normal hugs the line.
Two consequences:
— The floor is shallower and more bounded than symmetric bands assume. The 2.5th percentile sits at −1.42σ — about $50K today, ~÷2.6 below trend — not the deeper −1.96σ a normal would put it. This is why cycle lows cluster tightly rather than scattering.
— The upside tail is genuinely fatter: blow-off tops reach +3 to +4σ.
Where we are now: at $59,450, price sits at −1.17σ below a ~$133K trend. Left of center, but well inside the body of the distribution — routine deep-cycle territory, just above the statistical floor.