BTC_POWER_LA

Here is the paper. I will post it soon on Zenodo. Cory if you like to give us serious and constructive feedback, you are more than welcome. @CorySwan

Here is the paper. I will post it soon on Zenodo. Cory if you to give us serious and constructive feedback, you are more than welcome. @CorySwan

WHAT THE TEST IS
@CorySwan
Clauset et al. (2009) ask: does this distribution have a power-law tail?
Values of size x occur with frequency p(x) ∝ x^−α above a cutoff x_min that is estimated, not assumed. The fit is by maximum likelihood; the p-value comes from synthetic data drawn from the fitted model; and a likelihood ratio decides between the power law and named rivals such as the lognormal.
This work asks: does this quantity scale with time as a power law? Price follows P(t) ∝ t^n above a start time t_min that is estimated, not assumed.
Same four steps, same standard of evidence, applied t

Ragusa Sicily.

We will have another episode of the Physics of Bitcoin at 3:30 PM CET, 9:30 AM EST.
The agenda is below, join us on X, YouTube and Twitch.
The links are in the comments.

Nietzsche called it the most genial building ever created.

Near my home in Torino

In Hong Kong spreading the Power Law good news.

Didn't I say August was the bottom? 😉

I missed like air this kind beauty. Architecture is food for the soul.

Dante and Ulysses merge.
This should be another Bitcoiners motto.
Bitcoin is more about knowledge than a mere asset.
The lines are from Dante’s Inferno, Canto XXVI, in the famous speech of Ulysses (Ulisse) to his companions:
«Considerate la vostra semenza:
fatti non foste a viver come bruti,
ma per seguir virtute e canoscenza.»
A good English translation is:
“Consider your origin:
you were not made to live like beasts,
but to pursue virtue and knowledge.”
Or, a little more poetically:
“Remember what you were born to be:
you were not made to live as brutes,
but to seek excellence and knowled

Dante and Ulysses merge.
This is this should be another Bitcoiners motto.
Bitcoin is more about knowledge than a mere asset.
The lines are from Dante’s Inferno, Canto XXVI, in the famous speech of Ulysses (Ulisse) to his companions:
«Considerate la vostra semenza:
fatti non foste a viver come bruti,
ma per seguir virtute e canoscenza.»
A good English translation is:
“Consider your origin:
you were not made to live like beasts,
but to pursue virtue and knowledge.”
Or, a little more poetically:
“Remember what you were born to be:
you were not made to live as brutes,
but to seek excellence and

When people say the power law is useless even if true.
They are clueless.
Well what about using it to get 1300 BTC starting from 1 in 2014?
Not other information, deviation from the power law alone (useful in combination with slope info), volatility, can help you to achieve this.
Also if you want only a 80 % drawdown you still get 30 BTC.

I'm exploring with Claude a DCA and small leverage strat with Claude using the deviation and daily slopes from the power law.
This chart shows the growth in Bitcoin terms achieved by a strategy based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of Bitcoin’s local power-law slopes. The model identifies different dynamic market regimes and assigns an actionable exposure to each state, ranging from a cash/Bitcoin combination to full Bitcoin and modest leverage (~1.5×).
Importantly, the results are based not only on backtesting but on a walk-forward test from 2014 to the present, where each decision uses only