- China's largest Bitcoin miner suggests Arthur Hayes is right about Bitcoin bottom:

Jiang Zuoer, one of the most well-known Bitcoin (BTC) miners in China, predicted that Bitcoin would bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 in late 2026, closely matching Arthur Hayes' recent forecast of $40,000.

The founder of the mining pool made this prediction in a post, relying on a bearish signal from Strategy's stock, MSTR, with timing and target close to the BitMEX founder's forecast.

Strategy's mNAV discount echoes the 2022 bottom

Jiang's thesis is based on Strategy's mNAV, which he estimates at 0.72. This metric measures the stock against the amount of Bitcoin the company holds per share. A reading below 1.0 indicates the company is valued below its Bitcoin holdings.

This level is near the low of 0.7 that occurred in May 2022, the last time mNAV dropped this far. Jiang considers it a signal, not a timing.

In that cycle, mNAV bottomed in May when Bitcoin's price was near $31,000. Then the price continued to fall to around $15,650 by late November, as the FTX collapse deepened the decline. That gap lasted about six months.

Jiang clarified that the mNAV bottom is not the BTC price bottom, and added.

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He derived his broader timing from the four-year cycle model, which he compares to a bouncing ball losing height. He points to a bottom around October 31, 2026.

Jiang, who has mined through several halving cycles, has already shorted and plans to buy near the bottom.

Hayes points to a similar Bitcoin bottom

Arthur Hayes arrived at a similar destination but via a different path. The BitMEX founder explained his call to content creator Elliotrades on June 12. He expects Bitcoin to bottom near $40,000 within six months.

He sees the bet as tactical, not structural. Hayes holds covered put contracts as a hedge while keeping his primary positions in a strong buy stance. His year-end target remains above $200,000.

Bitcoin recently traded near $61,345, down 2.3% in 24 hours. Jiang's range is about 30% below that level, while Hayes' lower bound of $40,000 implies a decline closer to 35%.

Bitcoin price performance.
The real test is whether mNAV will again lead price by a six-month gap, shaping Bitcoin price expectations as we approach the end of 2026.
$BTC ‌