As of June 26, 2026, gold is in a deep technical bear market characterized by short-term dominance by bears. Long-term structural support still remains. International spot gold is around $4,034 per ounce (at one point falling below $4,000), and domestic AU99.99 is around 882 yuan per gram.

Current Core Drivers (Bearish Bias)

- The Fed turns hawkish: The new chair, Warsh, prioritizes fighting inflation; the dot plot suggests 1 rate hike in 2026, rate-cut expectations are zero, U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4.5%, and the cost of holding gold is raised.
- Strong dollar pressure: The U.S. Dollar Index breaks above 101 to a one-year high, directly weighing on gold prices.
- Risk-off sentiment fades: Middle East tensions ease (U.S.-Iran negotiations); oil prices fall; safe-haven buying withdraws.
- Capital outflows: Global gold ETFs see consecutive net redemptions; COMEX longs unwind; leveraged funds trigger a liquidation stampede.

Technical View: Bearish Structure

- Trend: Daily moving averages are in a bearish alignment; the MACD death cross is below the zero line; the RSI is oversold but shows no reversal signal; the weekly chart reflects a bearish model.
- Key levels:
- Resistance: 4020-4050 (short term), 4220 (the bull-bear dividing line)
- Support: 3959 (recent low), 3880-3900, 3800 (deep correction target)
- After breaking below the $4,000 psychological level, the probability of further downside probing is high. Only an oversold rebound is expected, not a reversal.

Outlook for the Second Half

- Short term (Q3): Fed rate-hike expectations plus a strong dollar keep gold in a choppy downward exploration pattern; the range is expected to be 3800-4200 dollars. Tonight’s U.S. core PCE data is crucial; if inflation comes in above expectations, the selloff is likely to continue.
- Long-term support: Global central banks (including China) continue buying gold; high U.S. debt; long-term weakening of the dollar’s credit outlook—all limit deep declines. Below 4000 dollars, there is support from central bank buying.
- Signals of a turn: Continued declines in U.S. inflation (CPI/PCE) → rate-cut expectations restart, or a sudden escalation in geopolitical risk. In Q4, a volatile stabilization and rebound is possible. Institutions’ year-end targets differ significantly (Goldman Sachs 4900, Deutsche Bank 4800, bullish outlook 5200+).

Trading Approach

- Short-term trading: Trade with the trend and be bearish on rallies; do not blindly bottom-fish. Use strict stop-losses and be alert to leverage risk (banks have raised margin requirements / suspended TD).
- Physical holdings / DCA: The long-term value-preservation logic has not broken. Below 4000 dollars / 880 yuan, you can build positions in batches. The Q3 choppy bottom-building period is suitable for DCA; avoid going all-in with a single entry.
- Wait and observe: Increase position size only after confirming either a Fed policy pivot or a technical bottom with bearish divergence.

After gold ended its bull market from the January high of 5595 dollars, it entered a triple adjustment of “monetary policy + strong dollar + risk-off fade.” In the short term, bearish sentiment is building. Over the long term, central bank gold purchases lock in the bottom. In the second half, the probability favors holding back first and then moving up. Control your position sizing and focus on PCE and the Fed’s statements.