FCEL Research Report

It signed a data center power supply agreement with Fit Energy for up to 380MW, with the first phase being 30MW, followed by phases of 100MW, 125MW, and 125MW. The most interesting part is that Fit also received FCEL warrants with an exercise price of $26.44.

This is somewhat similar to the BE and ORCL playbook at the time.

Back then, BE signed a data center power supply deal with Oracle and also issued warrants. At that time, BE's stock price was around $100, and now it's over $300. The logic is simple: AI data centers are desperately short of power, and the traditional grid can’t keep up. So companies providing on-site power generation and fuel cells suddenly got repriced by the market.

FCEL’s current problem is that it can’t fully benchmark itself against BE yet.

On BE’s side, the client is Oracle, a strong brand, and the orders keep growing, making it a clear industry trend. For FCEL, the highest certainty so far is the initial 30MW. The remaining 350MW still depends on whether Fit will push forward and continue making deposits. So FCEL currently looks more like an “early-stage BE”—it has a story and upside, but hasn’t fully materialized yet.

I think the biggest selling points for this stock are as follows:

First, the logic that data centers are short on power is real, not a hype. AI continues to expand, and electricity demand will only become more extreme.

Second, FCEL isn’t purely telling a story this time—it actually signed orders, and the warrants are tied to future project progress, not just giving away shares.

Third, if the 100MW phase truly materializes with non-refundable deposits paid, the market might start pricing it more toward the BE direction.

But the risks are also obvious.

Its current financial performance isn’t great—revenue is small, it’s still losing money, and the company has previously had dilution from financing. So you can’t view this as a steady growth stock; it’s more like a high-beta, event-driven play.

On the trading side, I don’t think chasing the rally is worthwhile. FCEL has already gone up quite a bit recently, and the positive news is partly priced in. The truly comfortable entry zone is closer to $13.

The $13 to $15 range is worth watching closely. This area is near previous support and also close to the company’s previous ATM financing cost level. As long as there’s no negative news—like orders being canceled or the first 30MW still on track—the closer to $13, the better the risk-reward ratio.

$26.44 is a key level because it’s Fit’s warrant exercise price. If the stock can break above that level and the company keeps releasing news about subsequent orders materializing, the market might repriced it. But without new news, just pushing on the back of this one announcement, it could easily spike and then retreat.

So my view is simple:

FCEL does have some BE/ORCL flavor, but it’s not BE yet.

It’s currently a high-beta stock with imagination, not a sure thing.

Don’t chase the rally; wait for a pullback.

The closer to $13, the more worthwhile it is to accumulate in batches.

Going forward, keep an eye on whether the 100MW phase actually materializes.

If it does, the story continues.

If not, it was just a quick hype on the data center power shortage concept.

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