Let me briefly talk about FCEL. It signed a data center power supply agreement with Fit Energy for up to 380MW, with an initial phase of 30MW, followed by stages of 100MW, 125MW, and 125MW. The most interesting part is that Fit also received warrants for FCEL, with an exercise price of $26.44.

This is somewhat similar to the BE and ORCL script back then.

At that time, BE signed a data center power supply deal with Oracle, along with warrants. When BE’s stock was still above $100, it has now surpassed $300. The logic is actually simple: AI data centers are severely short on power, and the traditional grid can’t keep up. So companies that provide on-site power generation, like fuel cells, suddenly got repriced by the market.

The problem with FCEL now is that it’s not yet fully comparable to BE.

On BE’s side, the client is Oracle—a strong brand—and the orders have snowballed, turning into a clear industry trend. For FCEL, the highest certainty is the initial 30MW. The remaining 350MW depends on whether Fit continues to move forward and pay deposits. So FCEL currently looks more like an “early-stage BE”: it has a story, it has upside, but it hasn’t fully delivered yet.

I think the biggest points to watch on this stock are:

First, the logic of data centers being short on power is real, not just hype. As AI expands, electricity demand will only become more extreme.

Second, FCEL isn’t just telling a story this time. It actually signed orders, and the warrants are tied to the progress of subsequent projects, not just giving away free shares.

Third, if the next 100MW phase truly lands with non-refundable deposits, the market could start pricing FCEL more along the lines of BE.

But the risks are also obvious.

Its current earnings aren’t great—revenue is small, it’s still losing money, and the company has a history of dilution through financing. So this shouldn’t be viewed as a steady growth stock, but rather as a highly event-driven, high-beta play.

From a trading perspective, I don’t think chasing after a rally makes sense now. FCEL has already risen quite a bit recently, and part of the positive news has been priced in. The truly comfortable entry point, in my view, is closer to $13.

The $13 to $15 range is worth paying close attention to. This is near the previous support level and also close to the company’s ATM offering cost zone. As long as there’s no bad news on the fundamentals—like the order being canceled or the initial 30MW not progressing—the closer to $13, the better the risk-reward ratio.

$26.44 is a very critical level because it’s the exercise price of Fit’s warrants. If the stock can stand above that level later, and the company continues to release news about subsequent orders landing, the market could reprice it. But without fresh news and only riding on this announcement, I think it could easily spike and then pull back.

So my view is simple:

FCEL does have that BE/ORCL vibe, but it’s not BE yet.

It’s currently a high-beta stock with imagination, not a sure thing.

Don’t chase the rally—wait for a pullback.

The closer to $13, the more worthwhile it becomes to accumulate in batches.

Going forward, key focus is whether the 100MW stage truly lands.

If it lands, the story continues.

If not, it’s just a one-off hype around the data center power shortage theme.

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