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Analysis: MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, and its BTC holding cost is now higher than the spot price.

MeNews
ME News, June 25 (UTC+8), CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy's preferred stock MSTR has fallen 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has fallen 51% from its peak. Strategy's 847,363 BTC holdings have an average cost of $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. The current BTC price has broken below this cost basis for the first time since the 2022 bear market. MSTR's additional decline relative to BTC has reached approximately 28 percentage points, approaching the upper end of the historical range, but has not yet touched the extreme retracement of 89% from the 2022 bottom. Meanwhile, Strategy's purchasing strategy has clearly shifted to defensive: weekly BTC purchases have been cut by about two-thirds, and less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised through stock issuance was used to buy BTC, with the rest moved into dollar reserves. At the end of May, Strategy also made its first net sale since 2022, selling 32 BTC to pay STRC dividends. Adler noted that the main risk currently is BTC remaining below the $75,000 treasury cost basis, which would block the financing channel for ATM issuance by compressing the MSTR premium. However, almost all of Strategy's debt is convertible bonds with no margin call risk, and the base case is a loss of marginal buyers rather than cascading liquidation. The true stress tipping point is when the company shifts from selling shares to systematically selling BTC itself to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest. (Source: PANews)
BTC-0.96%
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