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🔴May Core PCE highest since October 2023 - Warsh has even more reason to reinforce hawkish stance
Official data just released:
- Core PCE MoM: 0.3% for the month (in line with forecasts)
- Core PCE YoY: 3.4% - surged to highest since October 2023
- Headline PCE YoY: 4.1% - highest since April 2023, headline MoM +0.4%
- Personal Income and Personal Spending both +0.7% MoM
In the context of inflation driven by energy increases, Core PCE is clearly a more reliable indicator.
Even though the +0.3% MoM figure is "lower than expectations," the YoY 3.4% is the highest in 32 months -> the energy shock is gradually seeping in rather than having a one-time impact.
This terrible data was released just over a week after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made very hawkish remarks on interest rates and inflation.
CME FedWatch continues to raise the probability assessment of "at least one" rate hike before December