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Base effect fades, UK April CPI unexpectedly falls to 2.8%

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ME News reports that on May 20 (UTC+8), official data shows that the UK's April CPI annual rate slowed to 2.8% from March's 3.3%, below the market expectation of 3.0%, mainly due to the fading base effect from large price increases in utilities such as water and electricity in April last year. Before the US and Israel launched war on Iran, the Bank of England had expected April inflation to be close to its 2% target, but the energy shock triggered by the war forced it to significantly revise its forecast upward, with inflation possibly reaching 6.2% in early next year under the worst-case scenario. It is expected that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will announce more measures on Thursday to help lower the cost of living, including possibly cancelling the fuel tax increase scheduled to take effect in September. The UK Treasury has also urged supermarkets to introduce voluntary price caps on key food items in exchange for looser regulations. Currently, the key question facing the Bank of England is whether the overall rise in inflation will evolve into long-term price pressures. Officials say a weak labor market may curb workers' demands for wage increases and companies' ability to pass on costs. Tax data shows that both the number of people on payrolls and wage growth have slowed significantly. Financial markets are betting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates twice this year (25 basis points each time) and possibly a third time, while a Reuters survey shows that most economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged in 2026. (Source: Jin10)
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