As of June 25, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is in a bearish-dominant pattern after breaking down, with the price oscillating below the key $1,600 level. The current strategy should favor shorting on rallies, and attempting rebounds requires extreme caution.

📉 Market Core Signals

· Technicals are broadly weakening: the price is suppressed by all major moving averages (7, 20, 50, 200-day), forming a bearish alignment. $1,600 has turned from support into resistance.
· Capital continues to flee: the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to 0.027, a near two-year low; spot ETFs have seen consecutive net outflows, and institutional demand is weak.
· On-chain and news: Although some whales have increased holdings during the decline, it has not reversed the selling pressure; the Ethereum Foundation's 20% layoffs have also hurt market confidence.

🎯 Key Levels and Strategy Approach

Currently, shorting on rallies has a higher win rate; be cautious of potential sharp volatility from tomorrow's (June 26) option expiration.

Upper Resistance (Short Reference)

· First resistance zone: $1,634 - $1,652
· Bull-bear divide: $1,660 - $1,680 (if price rebounds here and faces pressure with shrinking volume, it's an opportunity to test shorts)
· Strong resistance zone: $1,720 - $1,773 (only a breakout above this level invalidates the bearish thesis)

Lower Support (Key Long Defense)

· Core defense zone: $1,550 - $1,600 (if lost, downside space opens)
· Medium-term key level: $1,492 - $1,524

Two Trading Approaches

1. Trend-following short (higher win rate): If the price rebounds to the $1,660-1,680 range and meets clear resistance, you can take a small short position, set stop-loss above $1,720, initial target $1,600, then $1,550.
2. Cautious observation (prudent choice): If the price oscillates narrowly between $1,600 and $1,660, it is recommended to wait and see until direction is clear. Do not counter-trend bottom-fish; there are no clear reversal signals currently.
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