#PCE通胀创三年新高，符合预期但压力未减

A wave of key U.S. data has been released intensively, with both employment and growth strengthening, and the pace of inflation deceleration falling short of expectations. By conventional logic, this should further dampen rate-cut expectations and pressure risk assets. However, the market’s first reaction was a sigh of relief—the core PCE annual rate came in at 3.4%, exactly in line with expectations, with no overshoot. This means the Fed has lost an immediate excuse to hike, giving stressed risk assets a brief reprieve.

That said, this respite likely won’t last. The final Q1 GDP annualized figure was sharply revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%, showing stronger economic resilience than expected—enough to keep hawkish officials maintaining a tough stance on rate cuts. The better the data, the further away the rate cut; once U.S. bond yields start rising again, risk assets will face renewed pressure.

For BTC, this is actually a double-edged sword. A stronger economy could support risk appetite in the short term, but excessive strength also makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates quickly, re-suppressing expectations of loose liquidity. A strong economy doesn’t mean BTC will rally immediately. The real key remains when rates will loosen.

On the charts, Bitcoin is still oscillating around $61,000, briefly breaking below $60,000 yesterday, and market sentiment has not truly eased. The core PCE release has mainly provided momentum for a bounce from oversold conditions, but the upcoming options expiration remains an uncertainty, limiting the rebound’s potential. For support, watch whether $60,000 holds firmly; resistance is near $62,500. Ethereum is relatively weaker—keep a close eye on the 1,600 level.

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