As of June 25, 2026, gold is undergoing a technical bear market. Short-term bears are in control, while medium- to long-term central bank gold purchases still provide support.

Current Market (June 25)

- International spot: Approximately $3,984 per ounce, down 0.36% on the day, falling below the key $4,000 level (yesterday’s low $3,962), hitting an 8-month low. From the year’s high of $5,595, it has pulled back nearly 29% (>20% meets the bear market definition).
- Domestic spot: Approximately 871 yuan per gram; Shanghai Gold main contract around 872 yuan per gram; brand gold jewelry 1,220–1,240 yuan per gram (down about 460 yuan per gram from the yearly high).
- Drivers: Fed hawkishness (rate-hike expectations intensify; rate cuts pushed out to 2027), the U.S. Dollar Index rises to 101.8, U.S. Treasury yields at 4.39%, geopolitical risk hedging (Middle East ceasefire) unwinds, and ETFs continue to see net outflows.

Fundamentals: Three Major Bearish Factors Suppressing the Market

1. Monetary policy: The Fed’s June dot plot is hawkish; the market expects an 86% probability of a rate hike this year (December). Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of gold (a non-yielding asset).
2. Strong dollar in reality: The U.S. Treasury Secretary strongly supports a strong dollar plus a resilient economy. With both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields staying high, gold prices are directly pressured.
3. Capital retreat: Global gold ETFs record consecutive net outflows, and SPDR reduces holdings. In China, banks raise precious metals margin requirements to 120%-140%, and some suspend personal deferred transactions, limiting leveraged speculation.

Only Support: Global central bank gold purchases (89% of central banks plan to increase holdings). The bottom is formed by long-term de-dollarization and reserve diversification.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Configuration

- London gold: The daily chart breaks below $4,000 (turning it into resistance). Moving averages are bearish in formation, MACD is below the zero axis, and RSI is oversold (28). Support: 3940 → 3900 → 3850. Strong support: 3800–3900 (the dense trading zone from last year). Resistance: 4040–4070 → 4000.
- Shanghai gold: Support at 865 → 850; resistance at 885 → 895.

Outlook

- Short term (within 1 week): Tonight’s U.S. core PCE data will set the tone. If inflation comes in above expectations, it may push prices down to 3900–3850. If inflation cools moderately, oversold conditions may trigger a rebound to 4030–4050 (still a bearish repair and won’t change the overall trend).
- Medium term (1–3 months): With high interest rates plus a strong dollar, expect weak, sideways trading within a broad range (3800–4100). A reversal may happen only if inflation and employment cool and rate-cut expectations restart.
- Institutional views: Goldman Sachs’ year-end target is $4,900 (in a rate-hike scenario, $4,400). Deutsche Bank sees $4,300 for Q3 and $4,800 for Q4; an extreme downside case at $3,800. Multiple major banks have lowered forecasts; the consensus for end-2026 is $4,600–$5,200.
- Long term: The logic of central bank gold buying plus de-dollarization remains unchanged. Below $3,800–$4,000 is a long-term allocation range.

Trading Reference (Not Investment Advice)

- Short-term trading: Do not blindly bottom-fish. If there is a rebound to 4030–4070, consider lightly shorting; or wait for oversold stabilization around 3900–3850 to bet on a rebound (use strict stop-losses). Leveraged trading carries extremely high risk.
- Medium- to long-term / physical: For physical gold bars / unleveraged spot, patiently build positions in batches below $3,900. For wedding and other just-needed demand, buy in batches (choose gram-priced gold jewelry and avoid high-premium one-price items). If you hold high-priced physical gold, there’s no need to panic and cut losses—hold long term to hedge against inflation.
- Risk control: Volatility is currently severe. Strictly manage position size. Banks have tightened leverage businesses; avoid chasing rallies or selling in panic.

Tonight (early June 26), the U.S. May core PCE is a key short-term directional signal. Closely monitor Fed officials’ statements and geopolitical developments.