BTC at $61,650—can you handle it?

Down over 20% this month, down 27% year-to-date, nearly 50% below the all-time high, with ETFs seeing $1.7 billion in outflows in a single week.

Brothers, I know you're panicking right now.

The price plunged from 70,000+ straight to around 61k, your account is down 30%, and the group chat is full of horror stories saying "the bull market is over." You stare at the candlesticks, your hand hovering over the sell button, silently thinking: get out first, buy back lower later.

First thing: $1.7 billion in ETF outflows—who's selling? Who's buying?

In the past few weeks, outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have totaled over $1.7 billion, and even BlackRock's IBIT couldn't hold up. Media headlines are everywhere: "Institutions are fleeing!" "Whales are retreating!"

Sounds scary? But while ETFs are seeing outflows, who's buying?

On-chain data shows short-term traders are panic-selling, but the number of long-term holder addresses hasn't budged. The supply growth rate has been steadily slowing since the halving, and the newly mined BTC each day isn't even enough to cover a fraction of institutional demand.

Second thing: Geopolitical conflicts + rate hike expectations—same old script.

Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with news about Iran everywhere. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turned hawkish in his first meeting, with the dot plot hinting at a possible rate hike in 2026. The Nasdaq tech stocks are pulling back simultaneously, and risk assets are under pressure across the board.

In March 2020, during the COVID crash, BTC dropped 40% in a day, and everyone said "Bitcoin is going to zero."

In May 2021, regulatory crackdowns sent BTC from 64k to 30k, and everyone said "the bull market is over."

In 2022, FTX collapsed, BTC fell to 15k, and everyone said "it will never come back."

And what happened? Every historical bottom was forged in the misery of "this time is different."

Third thing: $60,000—is it a solid floor or a trap?

On the weekly chart, BTC is near the lower bound of its large ascending channel. From $126k to $61k, it's nearly halved. Historically, mid-cycle corrections in every bull market range from 30% to 50%. Now it's right at the historical average bottom.

Key levels

Support: $59,000–$60,000 (recent lows + psychological level). If it holds, that's the mid-cycle bottom. If it doesn't, the next stop is $55,000–$57,000.

Resistance: $63,000–$64k (first hurdle for a bounce), $65,000–$67,000 (bull/bear dividing line).

Bull vs. Bear—you decide

On one side (bears scaring you):

ETFs saw $1.7 billion in outflows in a single week, institutions are retreating.

Middle East geopolitical tensions are suppressing risk appetite.

The Fed may raise rates, a high-rate environment is bearish for BTC.

Down 27% year-to-date, technical breakdown.

On the other side (bullish truth):

The supply growth rate has steadily slowed after the halving, long-term scarcity increasing.

Long-term holder addresses haven't budged, on-chain HODLers remain solid.

Historical cycle pattern: the 400–500 day window after the halving is the main rally period.

$59,000–$60,000 is a strong support zone, with heavy institutional order clusters.

Total BTC ETF size is still over $64k; long-term capital hasn't exited.

Short-term traders:

Enter lightly long in the $60,000–$61,000 range, stop loss at $58,500. Take half profit at $63,000–$64,000. If it bounces to around $64,000 with shrinking volume, reverse with a light short, stop loss at $65,500, target $61,000–$60,000.

Swing traders:

$59,000–$61,000 is the range for phased accumulation. Add every $1,000 drop, total position controlled at 20–30%. Stop loss at $56,500. First target $67,000–$70,000; after holding, look higher.

Long-term believers:

Ask yourself one question: Do you believe BTC will be more expensive or cheaper ten years from now?

If the answer is the former, BTC near $60,000 is a bargain. Keep DCA, don't stop. Don't let a short-term 20% move scare you away.

Leverage traders:

If you must do futures, stick to 3x or less and strictly stop loss. Don't go full short near $60,000—history has proven countless times that shorting at the bottom is the fastest way to lose money.

You open your account now and see a loss.

But have you ever thought—in 2022, how many people cried and sold BTC at $15k? In 2020, how many shouted "going to zero" when BTC was at $3,800?

The cruelest rule of this market is:

Every wealth transfer happens when the vast majority is in despair.

When you panic, others are being greedy.

When you cut losses, others are accumulating.

BTC at $61,650—

Is it the gallows for the fearful or the ticket for the faithful?

The answer isn't in my article; it's in your position. #0成本拿2股SK海力士 #以太坊基金会重组降本 #苏格兰VS巴西 $BTC $ETH