BTC fell below 60k, this is not the 2017 script anymore

Woke up and glanced at my phone
BTC $59,853, ETH $1,590. Fear and Greed Index 24, extreme fear.

200 unread messages in the group. Scrolled through them, roughly three categories: asking whether to cut losses, asking whether to buy the dip, and cursing the market as a scam.

I didn't reply to any. Not because I didn't want to, but at this level, no one can give a standard answer.

Let me first talk about what caused today's drop.
BTC hit a low of $59,023 during the session — the first time it has fallen below this level since October 2024. In the past 24 hours, nearly 180k people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $984 million, of which long position liquidations accounted for $799 million.
On the surface, it broke through a key support level. But this round is different from before.

Deutsche Bank released a report saying the biggest difference between this drop and previous ones is that retail investors are not stepping in.

In every previous sharp drop, retail investors were the ones rushing in to buy the dip. But in this cycle, where did retail investors' money go? It went into AI concept stocks. Stocks like NVIDIA and Micron have drained risk capital.

At the same time, ETF funds are continuously flowing out. Since May, tens of billions of dollars have flowed out cumulatively. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have both seen rare capital outflows. Institutions are withdrawing.

Retail isn't buying, institutions are selling, and AI is still siphoning capital.
When these three things stack together, the decline comes very smoothly.

But there's something worth watching.
On-chain data shows that whale addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have been steadily accumulating during this period, with total holdings recovering to 7.17 million BTC, the highest since mid-March.

What does this mean? The big players are buying.
This doesn't mean it will rally immediately. Whale accumulation isn't always right; they often lose money too. But at least it shows one thing: at this level, someone is catching the knife.

Early this morning, another address opened a long position of 102 BTC on the futures side, while simultaneously buying over $60k worth of BTC and ETH on the spot side. Nearly $180k in long exposure, concentrated within the same time window.

Moves of this magnitude are not something retail traders can pull off.
Let's look at the technicals.

The daily K-line has broken below all EMA moving average systems — the 15-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are all in a bearish alignment. Strong resistance above.
Short-term support lies in the $59,000-$60,500 range. If it fails to hold, the next target might be $58,200-$58,800.
Resistance above is at $61,400-$61,800. To break higher, volume is needed.

Let me share my own thinking, just for reference.
First, at this level, I won't go all-in to buy the dip, nor will I panic and liquidate everything. The volatility index BVIX has reached 44.65. Adding leverage in this environment is like gambling with your life.

Second, I'm waiting for two things to materialize. One is tomorrow's quarterly expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options. The other is tonight's U.S. PCE data — core PCE is expected at 3.4%. If it exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September will continue to rise.
After these two events pass, some of the market's short-term uncertainty will be released.

Third, try with small positions. Cut losses if wrong, add if right. Don't bet on direction, bet on probabilities.
This market has changed. The 2017 script of retail investors swarming in is over. This is an era of institutional pricing — ETFs flow in and prices rise, flow out and prices fall, simple and brutal.

Without solving these three structural issues — retail absence, AI siphoning capital, and institutional retreat — any bounce is just a bounce, not a reversal.
But thinking in reverse — when everyone is pessimistic, that's often when it's most worth staying calm.

The Fear and Greed Index range of 12-24 has historically produced many bottoms. Of course, that doesn't mean this is the bottom, but at the very least, you shouldn't make the most panicked decision when everyone is in extreme fear.
Above is today's market review. The data is here; make your own judgment.

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