From group stage to championship: How is Gate's prediction market reshaping the World Cup viewing experience?

The 2026 World Cup is in full swing across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. With 48 teams and 104 matches, it is the largest edition in World Cup history. For hundreds of millions of fans worldwide, watching the games is no longer just about viewing—predicting outcomes, discussing advancement paths, and analyzing championship winners are integral parts of the World Cup experience.

Traditionally, fans form judgments through expert commentary, statistical models, or casual chats among friends. But now, a new crypto-asset-based approach is reshaping how people engage with the tournament: prediction markets.

How Do Prediction Markets Work?

The essence of a prediction market is a mechanism that aggregates decentralized information through financial incentives. Participants buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a specific event—buying positions if they favor a certain result, or selling or shorting if they do not. As numerous participants trade based on their own information, the market forms an equilibrium price that directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring.

Take a match as an example: if the win contract for a certain team is priced at $0.65 (paying $1 if the event occurs), the market collectively assesses its winning probability at around 65%. Unlike traditional sports betting, where odds are set by bookmakers, the price in a prediction market is entirely determined by participants' trading behavior. Only those who bet on the correct outcome profit, while incorrect predictions incur losses—this incentive structure forces participants to think carefully and fully utilize information, thereby improving overall prediction accuracy.

Thus, the price in a prediction market is essentially a "collective intelligence" signal backed by real money. When the market gives a team a 68% chance of winning, it is not a subjective judgment from a single expert, but an equilibrium price formed by thousands of participants trading based on their own information.

Gate Prediction Market: World Cup Zone Upgrade, Bridging Event Information and Market Predictions

As the first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket services, Gate has completed a comprehensive upgrade of its Prediction Market World Cup Zone during the 2026 World Cup. The core logic of this upgrade is to unify "watching the games" and "trading expectations" within the same information environment, allowing users to more intuitively understand the event logic behind market prices.

After upgrading the Gate App to version 8.25.0 or above, users can enter the World Cup Zone with one click via the new entry on the App homepage. The prediction market homepage also synchronously adds a World Cup special topic entry, allowing users to quickly browse the World Cup schedule, standings, and popular prediction markets.

The content system of the zone has been further enriched. In addition to the schedule, standings, and event prediction markets, new sections such as Historical Championships, Best Players, and News have been added. The Historical Championships section displays the number of World Cup titles won by popular teams over the years, helping users quickly understand the historical performance of traditional powerhouses; the Best Players section aggregates goal data for popular players, providing reference for users to analyze player form and related prediction events; the News section aggregates World Cup-related information, helping users stay on top of event dynamics and market hotspots.

Team Subscriptions and Personalized Tracking

With the dense World Cup schedule and highly fragmented information, users' need to continuously track specific teams has significantly increased. Gate has introduced a team subscription feature in this upgrade. Users can select the national team they support to follow, and the system will automatically subscribe to all matches of that team during the World Cup; it also supports one-click subscription to all 104 matches, helping users avoid missing any important schedules and related prediction opportunities.

This mechanism significantly reduces the cost of information acquisition. Users do not need to switch between pages repeatedly to continuously track event progress and market changes.

Leaderboards and Smart Money Tracking: Making Market Signals More Transparent

Another core value of prediction markets is that "behavior is information." Gate has added a "World Cup" category to its leaderboard system, centrally displaying traders who have participated in related prediction events during the World Cup and achieved excellent returns.

This mechanism works in conjunction with the previously launched "Smart Money Tracking" feature. Users can not only see match results but also observe which traders made correct judgments at different tournament stages, and further track the position changes of high-win-rate traders. The "Smart Money Tracking" feature allows users to see how experienced and high-performing participants position themselves in various prediction events. Users no longer need to trade blindly or rely solely on market sentiment from social media; instead, they can directly observe capital flow patterns, trader confidence, and strategic positioning within the prediction market ecosystem.

Market Data: How the World Cup Ignites Prediction Markets

The driving force of the World Cup on prediction markets is tangible. As of June 23, 2026, Gate prediction market data shows that the current market capital allocation for each team's implied probability of winning the World Cup is as follows: France 20%, Spain 14%, Argentina 13%, Portugal 7%, Germany 6%. The gap among the top four is not absolute, and the market is still dynamically adjusting.

On a broader scale, Polymarket's World Cup winner prediction market has accumulated a total trading volume exceeding $3 billion. In the first week of the World Cup, the nominal trading volume of major prediction market sports sectors exceeded $7 billion. Gate, as a Polymarket partner channel, achieved a single-day trading volume of approximately $68.98 million on May 31, 2026, ranking first among Polymarket channels.

Bernstein analysts predict that this World Cup will generate over $3 billion in incremental trading volume for prediction markets and drive an increase of $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer prediction market trading volume. Analysts believe that the expanded 48-team World Cup will produce 104 matches, an increase of about 60% compared to the regular World Cup.

How to Participate in World Cup Predictions via Gate

The path to participating in prediction markets through Gate is very clear. After upgrading to version 8.25.0 or above, users can enter the World Cup Zone via the App homepage entry or the prediction market homepage's special topic entry. Users can directly use USDT in their accounts to participate in prediction market trading.

Gate has recently introduced a prediction market experience voucher mechanism, further lowering the barrier to entry for users. Users can use the platform's provided experience vouchers to open trial positions, experiencing prediction market trading at zero cost while retaining profit opportunities; if losses occur, the platform covers the cost.

Around the World Cup, Gate has launched several themed activities. The "Green Prophet, World Cup Carnival" activity, centered on all 104 matches, releases a total prize pool of over 500,000 USDT and limited physical rewards. The "Gate Prediction Market × World Cup Daily Focus Matches" series of activities revolves around 35 key matches, launching daily prediction challenges with a shared total prize pool of 50,000 USDT.

Summary

Prediction markets are changing the way people participate in the World Cup. They offer not just a "betting" channel, but a real-time probability system based on real money trading. By converting decentralized information into quantifiable price signals, prediction markets provide fans with a new perspective to understand the game—not only "who won," but also "who the market thinks will win" and "why."

Through the World Cup Zone's feature upgrades—homepage direct entry, team subscriptions, dedicated leaderboards, event data display, smart money tracking, and experience voucher mechanisms—Gate is transforming prediction markets from a niche crypto application into a tournament participation tool that ordinary fans can easily engage with.

As the World Cup continues, market prices will keep dynamically changing with every match, every injury report, and every tactical adjustment. For fans who want to engage more deeply with the World Cup, prediction markets offer a unique opportunity to combine football knowledge with market judgment.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is the difference between prediction markets and traditional sports betting?

In prediction markets, prices are entirely determined by participants' trading behavior, not set by bookmakers. Participants can continuously buy, sell, hedge, and arbitrage. Additionally, prediction markets operate on blockchain technology, with transparent and public transaction records.

Q2: What are the requirements to participate in prediction markets on Gate?

Users need to upgrade the Gate App to version 8.25.0 or above and use USDT in their accounts to participate. New users can also use the platform's provided experience vouchers to try it at zero cost.

Q3: How are prediction market prices formed?

Users buy and sell contracts linked to the outcome of future events. Contract prices fluctuate between $0 and $1, directly corresponding to the market's pricing of the event's probability. Prices are collectively determined by all participants' trading behavior.

Q4: What features does the Gate World Cup Zone offer?

The zone provides sections such as schedule, standings, event prediction markets, historical championships, best players, and news. It also supports team subscriptions, a World Cup-specific leaderboard, and page sharing functions.

Q5: What are the risks of participating in prediction markets?

Prediction market trading carries the risk of loss of principal. Participants should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. It is recommended that new users start with experience vouchers to familiarize themselves with the market mechanism before committing actual funds.