#0成本拿2股SK海力士 Current Market (June 25)

- International spot gold: approximately $3,970/oz, breaking below the psychological threshold of $4,000, down nearly 30% from the January all-time high (≈$5,595), entering a technical bear market, hitting a new low since November 2025.
- Domestic gold prices: Gold T+D approximately 870 yuan/gram, Shanghai Gold main contract ≈ 872 yuan/gram, branded gold jewelry 1,215-1,222 yuan/gram (cumulative drop of about 50 yuan in two days).

Why the sharp decline?

Three bearish factors converging:

1. Fed hawkishness: New Chair Warsh leans hawkish, dot plot hints at one rate hike this year, market pricing for the first hike as early as September, rate cut postponed to 2027. The U.S. dollar index surged to 101.5 (13-month high), U.S. bond real yields remain above 4.5%, opportunity cost of zero-yield gold skyrocketing.
2. Flight to safety receding: U.S.-Iran reached a temporary truce/negotiations, risk in the Strait of Hormuz cools, oil prices fell to $74, geopolitical premium quickly evaporating.
3. Capital outflows: Global gold ETFs continue to see net outflows, funds flowing to AI and other high-yield assets; multiple domestic banks have tightened or suspended individual precious metals leveraged business, speculative funds exiting.

Technicals: Bearish dominant

- Trend: Daily/4-hour moving averages are bearish (pressing above 4,100-4,120), price running in a descending channel, MACD green bars expanding, RSI ≈ 30 (oversold but no bottom divergence), downward momentum not exhausted.
- Key levels:
- Resistance: 4,000 (turned resistance) → 4,030-4,050 (strong intraday resistance) → 4,100-4,120 → 4,200-4,250
- Support: 3,960 (recent low) → 3,930 → 3,900 (psychological threshold) → 3,850 → 3,800
- If tonight's PCE inflation exceeds expectations (> expected 3.4%), could break below 3,900; if data is mild, there may be a oversold bounce but difficult to reverse the downtrend.

Fundamentals: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish

- Short-term pressure (next 1-3 months): High rates + strong dollar + weak ETF demand, institutions lowering forecasts (Goldman Sachs year-end 4,900 ↓, ING Q3 average 4,300/Q4 4,600). Gold may fluctuate widely to find a bottom, with increased volatility.
- Medium-to-long-term support (1-3 years): Global central banks continue net gold purchases (de-dollarization, high fiscal deficits), geopolitical order restructuring, high U.S. debt, building bottom resilience. The long-term bull logic is not broken, only the pace has slowed, showing a "volatile upward center".

Operational Thinking (Not Investment Advice)

- Short-term (leverage): Fade rallies in line with the trend, strict stop-loss, closely watch PCE data and Fed speeches, avoid counter-trend bottom fishing.
- Medium-to-long-term (physical/ETF): Do not chase shorts, patiently wait for opportunities around $3,900/$3,800, domestic 860-870 yuan/gram levels for phased entry, favoring DCA/allocation.
- Consumption: Gold jewelry pullback can be considered for essential purchases; investment prefer gold bars/paper gold/ETF (low fees, no high premium).

⚠️ Gold is highly volatile, leveraged trading is prone to liquidation; tonight at 20:30, the U.S. Core PCE data is a key short-term signal, pay attention to risk management.