Bitcoin dips below $60k, "dead" twice. Tomorrow is settlement, and I choose to be the one "catching the falling knife".

When everyone tells you "Bitcoin is dead," that's often when you should panic the least.

Don't curse me out yet. Read on first.

Let's first look at the scene we're in.

At around midnight Beijing time on June 25, BTC officially fell below $60k. It hit a low of $59,023, the lowest since October 2024.

Global markets experienced a "Black Tuesday"—South Korea's KOSPI plunged nearly 10% triggering a circuit breaker, the U.S. Nasdaq fell 2.21%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7.87%.

On the crypto side, over 130k positions were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $609 million, of which longs accounted for $540 million.

The Fear and Greed Index dropped to the 12-24 range. The Rainbow Chart model shows that Bitcoin has entered that legendary zone—

The "Bitcoin is dead" zone.

Well-named. Scary enough. Viral enough.

But have you ever considered one thing—every time this zone has appeared in history, it has been a cycle-level low point?

Now for the more painful part.

Institutions are fleeing. BlackRock's BTC and ETH spot ETFs both recorded significant net outflows. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of $6.35 billion, the weakest performance since launch. On June 23 alone, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $182 million.

Miners are selling. About 20% of mining companies have fallen below their breakeven point. JPMorgan estimates the mining cost at $78,000, while Bitcoin is now below $61,000. This inversion has persisted for five months. Miners have sold over $2 billion worth of Bitcoin this month, the fastest pace in over a year.

All bearish. All panic. All signals of "run."

But every story has two sides.

Tomorrow (June 26), Q2 options expire.

Deribit has $10.5 billion in quarterly options expiring, accounting for about 37% of all open Bitcoin options contracts. Of that, roughly $8.6 billion is out of the money.

What does this mean? It means a large number of highly leveraged long bets below $60k have become worthless paper. It means bears have a strong incentive to suppress prices before expiration to let more options expire worthless.

But it also means—after expiration, the suppressing force vanishes.

The market's max pain price is roughly $74,000. In theory, this price means the most option contracts will expire worthless, creating an upward pull on price.

The logic of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears at the key $60k level is clear: bears prefer to push prices down, bulls prefer to defend. Tomorrow's expiration is the endgame of this battle.

So, the question now is not "where is the bottom."

The question is whether you dare to be the one "catching the falling knife" when everyone else is panicking.

I offer two strategies. You choose.

Strategy One: Left-side phased accumulation (suitable for long-term players)

Fear and Greed Index at 12, historically this position often corresponds to a cyclical bottom. If you are a medium-to-long-term investor, now is not the time to cut losses, but to accumulate positions in batches.

But don't go all-in at once. Split into 3-4 batches, adding one for every 5% drop. Be mentally prepared—the bottom is a range, not a point.

Strategy Two: Wait for expiration, then follow from the right side (suitable for short-term traders)

After tomorrow's expiration, the direction will become clear. If the price stabilizes above $60k and breaks out with volume, follow from the right side and go long, with a stop loss below the previous low. If it continues to break down, then keep waiting.

Which is better? It depends on your position and mentality. But there is one iron rule—

Don't cut losses in extreme panic, and don't chase highs in FOMO.

Finally, here's one signal truly worth watching.

On-chain data shows that the net inflow of the largest Bitcoin wallets has reached its highest level since late May. Just yesterday, whale holders controlling at least 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply added 7,130 BTC, worth about $436 million.

Retail panic-sells. Whales silently accumulate.

Who is right? History will tell you. #0成本拿2股SK海力士 #以太坊基金会重组降本 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 $BTC $ETH $SOL