Jiang Zhuo'er Predicts That the Bitcoin Bear Market Will Bottom Out This October; Price Target Range May Reach $42,000–$44,000

On June 25, Jiang Zhuo'er, the founder of LaiBit Mining Pool, published an analysis post on the X platform, predicting—based on a four-year cycle model—that this round of the Bitcoin bear market will bottom out on October 31, 2026, with the price expected to trade in the $42,000–$44,000 range.

Jiang Zhuo'er pointed out that, based on an analysis of Strategy (MSTR)’s mNAV indicator, he said the indicator has fallen to 0.72, approaching the historical low of 0.7 on May 11, 2022, suggesting that this cycle’s mNAV may be in its lowest area.

mNAV represents the market sentiment of U.S. stock funds toward MSTR. A reading above 1 indicates bubble overvaluation, while a reading below 1 indicates pessimism and undervaluation. Based on the fact that mNAVh is currently at a low level, Jiang Zhuo'er recommends conducting a long MSTR & short BTC long-term arbitrage strategy.

However, the lowest point of mNAV does not mean that the BTC price has already reached its lowest point. If we look at historical data, as early as May 11, 2022, when mNAV bottomed out at 0.7, the BTC price was $31,017;

And when BTC price truly bottomed out on November 21, 2022 (when the price was $15,476), mNAV was 1.2, and the time gap between the two was 6 months.

Regarding trading operations, Jiang Zhuo'er said that his recent short- to medium-term operations have mainly focused on selling spot to short. Previously, at a price of $1,738, he sold 50% of his ETH spot.

In addition, in a prior post he referenced, he also mentioned that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate meeting showed a hawkish stance, with 9 out of 18 officials supporting at least one rate hike this year. This also implies that the market’s rate-cut cycle has ended, and the rate-hike cycle is now underway.

#比特币熊市 # Price Prediction