oh fuck, $STRC hit a new low, seems hard to recover in the short term.

Yesterday someone DMed me asking if MicroStrategy will become the biggest bomb of this cycle. I think the probability of a short-term hard explosion is not high, but the chance of a chronic bomb still exists.
If I have to speculate, besides the BTC price itself, there are several reference indicators:
1⃣ If mNAV stays <1.0, the equity financing flywheel will basically stall.
2⃣ If USD Reserve coverage is <6 months, dividend payment pressure will start to become real.
3⃣ If these preferred stocks like STRC / STRK continue to trade significantly below the issuance anchor, and yields get pushed higher and higher by the market, new financing will become more expensive, and covering old dividends will become harder.
This is actually the most annoying part.
4⃣ The frequency of BTC sales—if it changes from occasional small sell-offs to consecutive quarterly sales—is also a dangerous signal.