1. Macro Background (Determines Medium-term Trends)

1. Hawkish Fed Expectations Strike Again (Core Negative)
The June FOMC meeting’s dot plot significantly raised the terminal rate, with market pricing putting the probability of another rate hike in 2026 at 77%, pushing rate-cut expectations directly to 2027.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar strengthen, as the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress risk asset valuations. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-leverage growth assets, face far greater pressure than gold.

2. Institutional Capital Continues to Flow Out, New Inflows Drying Up
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, marking the longest redemption period since their launch. Institutions are reducing positions and fleeing to safety, leaving only zero-sum trading within the market.

3. Risk Appetite Weakens Across the Board
U.S. tech stocks are pulling back, the VIX is rising, and the crypto market is dragged down in sympathy. Concentrated liquidations of leveraged contracts amplify volatility, magnifying short-term selling pressure.

4. Independent Negative Factors for ETH Fundamentals
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken (underperforming relative to Bitcoin), on-chain activity remains low, and the Q3 Glamsterdam upgrade has no short-term speculative catalyst, making ETH even less resilient.