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Bernstein published its quarterly semiconductor industry review on June 23. Key takeaway: AI has become the "only game" in the semiconductor sector, with strong fundamentals but valuations and crowding at historical highs. The report also recommends NVDA and AVGO (rated "outperform"), arguing that while they have underperformed relatively this year, they are the core beneficiaries in the AI supply chain and are currently "ridiculously cheap" in valuation. It upgraded AMD but remains cautious on QCOM due to pressure on its mobile phone business.
AI demand drives record semiconductor sector gains
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose 155.6% over the past year and 106.6% year-to-date. Over the same period, the S&P 500 rose only 9.2%. The SOX's premium relative to the S&P 500 reached 62%.
The rally is fundamentals-driven, not a bubble. Bernstein's data shows that the SOX's forward EPS has increased 75% from the beginning of the year to now, while valuation expansion accounts for only a small portion.