Cryptocurrency News Daily — June 25, 2026

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🔴 Bearish | #1 BTC Breaks Below $60K to $59,023, $800M in Longs Liquidated, Deutsche Bank Reveals Structural Shift

BTC hit an intraday low of $59,023 (lowest since October 2024), marking the third time it has broken below the 60K threshold in 2026. It has retraced approximately 50% from its all-time high.

• Approximately $800 million in long positions were forcibly liquidated in the past 24 hours
• Approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin quarterly options expire on Friday, compounding the effect
• Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure points out key differences between this decline and past cycles:
  • Retail buying is nearly exhausted—previously, retail acted as a support during sharp drops, but they are now largely absent
  • ETFs act as price amplifiers—the amplifying effect of capital outflows on declines is perfectly symmetric to the previous inflows that drove rallies
  • AI infrastructure is siphoning risk capital—U.S. hyperscale cloud operators are expected to invest over $700 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with crypto and growth stocks sharing the same marginal buyers

Transmission logic: Retail exit + ETF outflows + AI siphon = triple demand collapse. Deutsche Bank warns: if the rotation of funds toward AI is structural rather than temporary, the drag on crypto demand will surpass any previous down cycle. BTC is "paying the price for institutionalization."

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 Directional Decision | #2 Today's PCE Data Release: Core PCE Expected at 3.4%, Headline PCE at 4.1%, Rate Hikes Are on the Table

On June 25 (today), the U.S. will release May PCE data—the first key verification data point after the hawkish shift at the June FOMC:

| PCE Indicator | Prior | Expected | Trend | |---------------|-------|----------|-------| | Core PCE MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | Flat | | Core PCE YoY | 3.3% | 3.4% | ↑ Accelerating | | Headline PCE YoY | 3.8% | 4.1% | ↑ Sharp Jump |

Three Scenario Simulations:

• Scenario 1 (Core ≤ 3.2%): Hawkish expectation correction → September rate hike probability drops below 40% → USD pullback → BTC rebounds to $62-65K
• Scenario 2 (Core 3.4%): Hawkish confirmation → September rate hike probability above 50% → Pricing in one rate hike this year → BTC oscillates $58-62K
• Scenario 3 (Core ≥ 3.5%): Hawkish reinforcement → September rate hike probability 60%+ → Starting to price in two rate hikes → BTC tests $55-58K

Key variable: Waller downplays traditional PCE weights and focuses more on trimmed mean PCE, but the market still trades on the old framework. Today also sees the release of Q1 GDP final (expected annualized QoQ 1.6%). Four Fed officials (Waller/Williams/Goolsbee/Kashkari) will speak after the PCE release.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🔴 Bearish | #3 Cross-Asset Plunge in Gold, Silver, Oil: Safe-Haven Logic Completely Fails, COMEX Silver Crashes 7.39%

Global assets continue the cross-category simultaneous crash after "Black Tuesday":

• COMEX Gold drops 3.21% to $4,016.4—breaks below $4,200 level, down for three consecutive weeks
• COMEX Silver crashes 7.39% to $57.49—decline far exceeds gold
• WTI $70.34 (-3.92%), briefly breaks below $70 (lowest since March)
• Brent $73.74 (-4.33%)—lowest since the Israel-Iran airstrikes in late February
• Dollar Index rises to 101.61—driven by rate hike expectations + safe-haven demand

Transmission logic: Rising rate hike expectations → stronger USD + rising real rates → suppresses all non-yielding/low-yielding assets (gold/silver/crypto). Oil plunge stems from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz + Iran sanctions waiver, which is positive for inflation but negative for energy stocks and exporters. Traditional safe-haven logic completely fails—gold is no longer a haven, suffering alongside BTC.

⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🔴 Bearish | #4 Strategy Pauses BTC Accumulation for 1 Week, Repurchases $1.5B in Debt, MSTR Hits Two-Year Low

Strategy (MSTR) has made its first substantial interruption to Bitcoin accumulation:

• Pauses BTC purchases for 1 week (will resume next week), prioritizing balance sheet repair
• Uses $1.38B cash to repurchase $1.5B in convertible debt—discount buyback reduces equity dilution pressure
• MSTR closes at $103.84 (-5%), intraday decline >6%, two-year low, down ~81% from peak
• STRC preferred shares trade at $84-87.31 (face value $100), effective yield rises to ~14%
• Dividend coverage period is only about 14 months, requiring $2.8B in reserves to restore to 24 months
• BTC's current price is below Strategy's average cost basis of $75,699—the market is starting to price in forced selling by leveraged corporate holders

Transmission logic: Strategy's "buy-only, never-sell" narrative shaken → market fears rise over leveraged corporate holders shifting from buying to selling → if BTC stays below $75,699, Strategy faces an unrealized loss of ~$15K per BTC → structural selling pressure risk. Benchmark maintains a buy rating with a target of $570, but CryptoQuant believes BTC buying has become a "liquidity black hole."

⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🔴 Bearish | #5 CLARITY Act Senate Negotiations Collapse, Passage Probability Drops to 48%

Major setback for core crypto regulatory legislation:

• Polymarket passage probability falls from 74% to 48% (was 74% a month ago)
• Two core disputes erupt simultaneously:
  1. Ethical framework talks collapse—parties cannot agree on enforcement authority terms, Trump's crypto ethics controversy becomes a new obstacle
  2. Section 604 faces opposition from law enforcement groups—said to increase difficulty of investigating and prosecuting crypto crime
• Only 31 Senate working days remain to advance the bill
• Over 200 crypto companies form a coalition urging a full floor vote
• Catholic leaders and law enforcement groups rarely unite in opposition

Transmission logic: Diminished regulatory optimism → crypto lacks short-term upside catalysts → market awaits PCE data rather than legislative progress for pricing. If the bill's progress stalls, the "regulation by enforcement" model will continue, leaving the crypto industry in prolonged regulatory uncertainty.

⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟢 Bullish | #6 U.S.-Iran Continue Technical Consultations on 6/30, Hormuz Transit Volume Recovers to 20M Barrels/Day

Geopolitical de-escalation continues:

• Rubio confirms: U.S.-Iran will start the next round of technical-level negotiations in Switzerland on 6/30, with four working groups (nuclear/sanctions relief/reconstruction/oversight) holding talks
• U.S. Energy Secretary reveals: approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours
• Iran's $12 billion asset thaw begins execution (two tranches of $6 billion each)
• U.S. oil sanctions waiver valid through August 21
• 118 oil tankers still stranded in the Persian Gulf, cleanup expected to take 10-15 days
• Goldman Sachs predicts: Strait crude oil flow recovers to 70% of pre-war levels, Gulf oil producers return to normal output by October

Transmission logic: Geopolitical easing → oil price crash → inflation cooling → reduced rate hike pressure → medium-term bullish for crypto. However, fragility is high: Israel's Netanyahu reaffirms IDF is unrestricted + long-term presence in Lebanon security zone → Lebanon situation remains the biggest risk factor for talks.

⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🔴 Bearish | #7 SpaceX Issues $25B in Bonds (Five Tranches), $85B in Subscription Demand, But Market Reaction Cautious

SpaceX bond issuance details:

| Tenor | Amount | Rate | |----------------|--------|--------| | 5-year (2031) | $7B | 5.35% | | 7-year (2033) | $6B | 5.65% | | 10-year (2036) | $6B | 5.875% | | 20-year (2046) | $2.5B | 6.6% | | 30-year (2056) | $3.5B | 6.65% |

• Total $25B, has attracted nearly $85B in subscription demand (3.4x oversubscribed)
• Proceeds used to repay bridge loans + AI data centers/computing hardware/power infrastructure
• SpaceX closes at $154.54 (-1.01%), total market cap $65B
• Down 31.5%+ from high of $225.64

Transmission logic: Issuing $25B in bonds just weeks after IPO → market worries about overly aggressive financing → tech stock valuation contraction spreads → crypto follows. SpaceX becomes a symbolic case of "tech bubble bursting."

⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🟡 Neutral | #8 Korean Stock Market V-Shaped Rebound +3.26%, Samsung Reportedly Plans 90 Trillion Won Buyback, But Core Issues Unresolved

• KOSPI rebounds 3.26% (after a 10% crash the previous day triggered a circuit breaker)
• Samsung Electronics surges >9%, SK Hynix rises >5%
• Market rumors that Samsung plans a "historic buyback" of 90 trillion won (~$65 billion)
• But core issues remain: tighter leveraged ETF regulation + overly high AI earnings expectations + MSCI bearish factors
• The "Miracle on the Han River" is extremely reliant on the semiconductor industry alone

Transmission logic: Korean stock rebound = temporary relief of systemic risk → panic in Asia subsides → BTC faces short-term pressure but no longer compounded by Asia crash panic. However, the quality of the rebound is questionable—technical covering rather than fundamental improvement.

⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 🔴 Bearish | #9 U.S. Stock Market: Nasdaq Three-Day Losing Streak, Chip Stocks Continue to Weaken, Micron's "Epic Earnings" After Hours

U.S. stock market close on 6/24:

• Dow +0.35% (51,849), Nasdaq -0.43% (25,477, three-day losing streak), S&P -0.10% (7,358)
• Large-cap tech mostly down: Microsoft -2%+, Tesla -1%+, Meta -0.78%
• Chip stocks continue to correct: Seagate -4%+, Western Digital -4%, Qualcomm -3%+
• Energy stocks broadly lower: Exxon -2%, Chevron -2.5%, ConocoPhillips -2.75%

But Micron's "epic earnings" after hours:

• Q3 revenue $41.46B (expected $35.84B, beat by 45%+)
• Gross margin surged from 39% to 84.9% (all-time high)
• Data center revenue grew 7x YoY to $11.5B
• Expects next quarter revenue ~$50B (expected $43.58B)
• Up nearly 10% after hours

Transmission logic: AI trading enters a "differentiation phase"—from broad rallies to filtering real winners. Micron proves AI demand is real and strong, but it only benefits the AI infrastructure sector; for crypto, it is a siphon rather than a spillover.

⭐⭐⭐ | 🟠 Risk | #10 Fear & Greed Index Drops to 17, Approaching Historical Extreme of 9 from 6/12

• Fear & Greed Index falls further from yesterday's 23 to 17
• Sixth consecutive day in extreme fear territory
• BTC has retraced 50%+ from all-time high, depreciating 27%+ cumulative in 2026
• Deutsche Bank points out: BTC increasingly exhibits institutionalized risk asset characteristics, with growing correlation to tech stocks
• Wintermute previously predicted BTC could test $50K range in summer

Contrarian thinking: Fear index at 17 is in an extreme zone, but this time it is combined with macro systemic headwinds (rate hikes + AI siphon + ETF outflows + regulatory obstacles). Pure contrarian positioning requires macro catalyst alignment. Today's PCE data is the core anchor for directional judgment.

🎯 Today's Core Variable Tracker

| Time | Event | Impact Direction | Attention | |------|-------|------------------|-----------| | Today | May PCE Data Release | 🟡 Directional Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Today | Q1 GDP Final Release | 🟡 | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Today | 4 FOMC Officials Speak (Waller/Williams/Goolsbee/Kashkari) | 🟡 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 6/27 (Fri) | Quarterly Options Expiry (~$10B) | 🟠 Volatility Amplification | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 6/30 | U.S.-Iran Technical Consultations Round 2 Start | 🟢/🟠 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Ongoing | Whether Strategy Resumes Accumulation After 1-Week Pause | 🟡/🔴 | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Ongoing | Whether CLARITY Act Talks Restart | 🟡 | ⭐⭐⭐ |

🔮 PCE Scenario Simulation (Direction Decided Today)

| Scenario | Condition | BTC Target | Action Suggestion | |----------|-----------|------------|-------------------| | 🟢 Bullish | Core PCE ≤ 3.2% | $62-65K rebound | PCE below expectations → rate hike expectation correction → light position for exploratory entry | | 🟡 Neutral | Core PCE 3.4% | $58-62K oscillate | Hawkish confirmation → stay on sidelines, wait for options expiry to assess | | 🔴 Bearish | Core PCE ≥ 3.5% | $55-58K decline | Two rate hikes priced in → reduce position to 5-10%, do not gamble on data |

📋 Operational Discipline Reminder

1. Today's PCE is the only directional anchor: Maintain minimum positions before release, do not make directional bets
2. No leverage before 6/27 options expiry: $10B quarterly expiry + post-PCE aftershocks = extreme volatility window
3. Strategy's accumulation pause is a warning: BTC below $75,699 average cost → potential selling pressure from leveraged corporate holders rises, and breaking below $59K accelerates this risk
4. AI siphon is structural, not temporary: Deutsche Bank warns—if capital rotation continues, the crypto downturn will surpass previous cycles
5. Fear = 17 contrarian window needs catalyst activation: PCE below expectations is the activation condition; otherwise, it is just a "left-side bottom-fishing trap"