Key Support/Resistance Levels

Support Below (from near to far)

1. 59100: Previous low, last defense for short-term longs; if the real body breaks below, a new round of decline begins;

2. 57500: Medium-term strong support, dense area of previous consolidation chips;

3. 55000: Medium-term psychological level, target for deep correction.

Resistance Above (layers of suppression on bounces)

1. 60500: Short-term pressure on the hourly chart, first bounce level;

2. 61800–62000: Previous consolidation center, large amount of trapped longs;

3. 63200: 4-hour MA5 moving average, strong resistance; only a bullish close with volume can relieve the bearish pressure;

4. 64700: Daily chart short-term moving average confluence resistance, the starting area of this decline.

Two Price Scenarios

Scenario 1 (High probability, bearish bias)

59100 support fails, quickly drops to test 57500; minor bounce in between to the 60500–61800 range meets resistance and falls back, overall oscillating and grinding lower; all bounces are opportunities to short.

Scenario 2 (Low probability, weak recovery)

59100 holds and does not break, triggering an oversold recovery, bounces to challenge 61800–63200; if unable to close above 63200 with volume, weakness resumes after the bounce, only a short-term repair, does not change the major bearish structure.

Core Trading Reminders

1. There is currently no valid bottom divergence; do not bottom-fish for a reversal. In a one-sided downtrend, bottom-fishing carries a high risk of loss;

2. Short-term only trade for minor oversold bounces; strictly use stop-loss; do not chase longs if the bounce lacks volume;

3. Trend thinking: when bounces encounter key resistance, prioritize selling high with the trend;

4. Key observation signals: ETF flows turn from outflows to net inflows, US bond yields fall sharply, 4-hour MACD forms a higher-low double bottom divergence; only when all three resonate does it have the conditions for a trend reversal.
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