#0成本拿2股SK海力士 Current Market (2026-06-25)

- International Spot: Approximately $4,010/oz, briefly broke below the $4,000 mark overnight (low ~$3,964), retracing nearly 30% from the January all-time high (~$5,595), entering a technical bear market.
- Domestic Shanghai Gold: Approximately 873-878 RMB/g (T+D/Spot), brand jewelry gold about 1,258-1,263 RMB/g, bank investment gold bars approximately 922-925 RMB/g.

Core Logic Behind the Sharp Decline

1. Fed Super Hawkish: The June meeting turned hawkish, with market expectations of no rate cut in 2026 and even a rate hike in September. U.S. Treasury yields >4.5%, the dollar index surged to 101.8, sharply increasing the opportunity cost of gold (a non-yielding asset).
2. Risk Premium Fading: Easing U.S.-Iran tensions, normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plummeted, and geopolitical risk premiums were unwound.
3. Fund Selling: Global gold ETFs saw continuous net outflows, institutions cut price targets (Goldman Sachs lowered year-end to $4,900↓, Deutsche Bank Q3 target at $4,300), long positions panic selling.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Dominance

- Trend: Daily descending channel, moving averages bearish alignment, MACD death cross, RSI ~35 (not oversold), no clear reversal signal.
- Key Levels:
- Support: $4,000 (psychological) → $3,950-3,900 (strong support) → $3,800-3,850 (deep drop) → $3,650-3,500 (extreme).
- Resistance: $4,050-4,100 (short-term bounce pressure) → $4,200 (trend reversal threshold) → $4,350 (strong resistance).
- Only a firm hold above $4,200 could shift to a range-bound bias; otherwise, follow the bearish trend.

Outlook

- Short-term (June-August): Bottoming grind, prone to declines rather than rallies. Hawkish Fed + strong USD, bounces are mostly technical repairs. Focus on tonight's U.S. Core PCE data (inflation set expectations for rate hikes). If inflation is sticky, gold may test $3,900-3,800.
- Medium-to-long term (H2): First bottom, then recovery. Central bank gold buying (China's consecutive increases) caps deep declines; if inflation eases by year-end and rate cut expectations restart, Q4 could stabilize and rebound. Institutions are divided (Goldman Sachs $4,900, Citi bearish $3,650, JPMorgan optimistic $6,000); base scenario: wide-range volatility between $4,000-4,900.

Practical Strategies

- Short-term Traders: Favor high-short (test shorts at $4,050-4,100 pressure zone), light long positions on oversold bounces at $3,950/$3,850 (strict stop loss). Avoid leveraged bottom-fishing; high volatility may lead to liquidation.
- Long-term Allocators:
- Don't rush to go full position: Current bottom isn't confirmed. Use staggered fixed investment (accumulation gold/gold ETFs), gradually build positions on sharp dips, average cost.
- Product Selection: For investment, choose bank gold bars, gold ETFs, accumulation gold; jewelry gold carries high premiums, don't confuse with investment.
- Position Control: Gold should account for 5%-15% of household liquid assets, a hedge and store of value, not a speculative tool.
- Risk Warning: Tonight's PCE data, Fed officials' speeches, and geopolitical shifts are short-term volatility sources; if the Fed actually raises rates, gold risks a second leg down.

⚠️ The market is highly volatile. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investment requires risk management.