Meta's Zuckerberg Reportedly Eying a Piece of the Prediction Market Cake - Unchained

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small internal team to develop a standalone prediction markets app internally called Arena, placing the social media giant in direct competition with Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

Arena is being developed as a standalone app, separate from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, the Times reported, citing two employees with knowledge of the project. Still, Meta plans to direct traffic from those platforms toward Arena. Meta reported 3.56 billion daily active people across its apps in early 2026.

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Arena would begin with a video game-style points system rather than real-money wagering, sources told the Times, adding that Meta has not ruled out real-money betting in the future. Employees reportedly described the effort as both experimental and a top priority.

Meta’s usage of points instead of real money matters could allow it to sidestep regulatory questions currently facing prediction markets as the CFTC and state gambling regulators fight for oversight.

This is not Meta’s first entry into the space: the company launched a prediction product called Forecast in 2020 and shut it down in 2022.

Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket grew from under $5 billion in September 2025 to roughly $24 billion by April 2026, according to Pew Research. Investment bank Bernstein estimated in April that the prediction markets sector could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade.

Related Listen: https://unchainedcrypto.com/why-kalshis-john-wang-says-perps-are-the-most-pure-trading-instrument/