Gold at $3,980, do you dare to buy the dip?

Falling from $5,600 to $3,980, a 28% drop, eight investment banks collectively cut their target prices, and gold ETFs continue to see net outflows—yet central banks around the world are still secretly buying. Is this the end of the gold bull market, or the last chance for you to get on board?

The money you lost in cryptocurrencies might be lost even faster in gold.

Both have fallen 28% from their highs, with ETH taking 3 months, and gold taking 5 months.

But the “bottom” of gold is harder to guess than the “bottom” of cryptocurrencies.

First thing: The new Fed Chair’s first move burned $1,600 off gold

On June 18, Beijing time, the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin W. Waller completed his “debut.”

Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected.

Nine members expect at least one rate hike by 2026. Market bets on rate hikes this year are fully priced in.

After the decision was announced, gold plunged over $150 in a short-term drop. The dollar index broke through 101, hitting a new high in over a year. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.5%.

Gold does not generate interest. The higher the interest rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. This is gold’s most deadly weakness.

Second thing: Geopolitical “peace” instead became a death knell for gold

The US and Iran reached a phased peace agreement. Iran agreed to accept on-site inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The Strait of Hormuz resumed navigation. Oil prices plummeted.

Logically, falling oil prices = lower inflation = no need for the Fed to hike rates = positive for gold.

But the market simply doesn’t buy it.

Geopolitical risk cools down, safe-haven demand disappears. Gold has lost its biggest selling point as a “safe haven.”

Good news is ignored, bad news is amplified. This is gold’s current predicament.

Third thing: Wall Street collectively “changed faces,” and the bulls are starting to run

In the past month, at least eight major international banks have lowered their gold target prices:

Goldman Sachs: year-end target lowered from 5,400 to 4,900

Deutsche Bank: Q3 target at 4,300, Q4 at 4,800—if the Fed hikes rates, it could fall to 3,800

JPMorgan: average annual price lowered from 5,708 to 5,243

Morgan Stanley: second-half target lowered from 5,700 to 5,200

Bull vs. bear, see for yourself

One side (bears telling stories):

Hawkish Fed, rate hike expectations rising

Dollar index hitting a one-year high, US bond yields at 4.5%

Eight banks lowering target prices

Gold ETFs continuing to see net outflows

Geopolitical risks cooling, safe-haven demand disappearing

The other side (bulls telling the truth):

89% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold holdings

Central banks will buy 863 tons of gold in 2025, the fourth-highest in history

$4,000 is a strong psychological support

Goldman Sachs still lists gold as the top commodity for 2026

De-dollarization is a long-term trend, and gold is the ultimate beneficiary

Key levels:

Resistance above: 4,120-4,135 (5/10-day moving average resistance) → 4,160-4,180 (weekly bull/bear dividing line) → 4,300-4,340

Support below: 4,000 (psychological level + demand zone) → 3,950-3,930 → 3,850-3,900

Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the medium-term downtrend has not reversed. The 4-hour chart shows oversold exhaustion, indicating a technical rebound is possible—but the rebound is only a correction, not a reversal.

For brothers already holding positions:

Rebound to around 4,100-4,120, cut half of your holdings. Place stop-loss below 3,950.

For brothers wanting to buy the dip:

Wait for a volume-increasing bullish reversal candlestick in the 4,000-4,050 range before lightly entering.

Stop-loss at 3,950.

First target: 4,200-4,250, then look for a breakthrough to 4,400.

For brothers wanting to short:

If the rebound reaches around 4,120-4,130 and volume thins out, go short lightly.

Target 4,000 → 3,950. Stop-loss above 4,160.

Position control:

No more than 5% of total funds per trade.

Gold volatility is approaching cryptocurrency levels—trading gold with a crypto trader’s mindset will get you killed faster than trading crypto.

Pay attention to key data next week: CPI and employment data around July 14. These will determine the Fed’s next move.

Can you buy gold at $4,000?

I ask you:

When it was $5,600, you shouted “Gold will always rise,”

At $4,000, you ask “Can I still buy?”

Are you investing, or just chasing the highs and selling the lows?

Gold fell from $5,600 to $4,000, a 28% drop.

But central banks around the world are still buying.

Goldman Sachs still says it’s the top commodity for 2026.

The cruelest truth in this market is:

Every major historical correction, someone shouts “This time is different.”

But every time, history repeats—

And when it repeats, you’re no longer on the train.

Is $4,000 gold—

A game for the brave, or just #0成本拿2股SK海力士 another grave for the chasers?