#苏格兰VS巴西

June 24, 2026 Bitcoin

I. Current Market Situation

As of early June 24, BTC price is approximately $62,200, down over 4% in 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $659 million across the network in the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for over 90%, indicating concentrated long liquidations.

1. Short-term Range:
- Strong Support: $60,800–$61,000 (previous lows + key defense at the 200-week moving average)
- First Resistance: $63,500; Strong Resistance: $65,000–$66,800
2. Volume Characteristics: Spot trading volume continues to decline, ETF still shows small net outflows, incremental capital is lacking, market is in a stockpile battle, and there is no sustained buying interest to support a rebound.

II. Core Downward Logic for Today (Main Bearish Factors)

1. Macro Liquidity Suppression (Dominant Factor)

The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate meeting signaled a strongly hawkish stance, with the market pricing an 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September and December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizing above 4.5%. High interest rates continue to suppress all high-volatility risk assets; Bitcoin no longer functions as a safe haven, with funds shifting toward the US dollar, US Treasuries, and traditional gold as safe assets.

2. Institutional Capital Continues to Withdraw

US spot ETF has experienced net outflows for several consecutive days, with institutions proactively reducing crypto holdings during the liquidity tightening cycle; previously, leading companies sold small amounts of BTC, further undermining bullish confidence.

3. Global Risk Appetite Collapsing

Overnight, US stocks’ Nasdaq fell 2.21%, with semiconductor and AI sectors plunging; global growth-oriented risk assets declined in unison, and the crypto market followed the tech sector’s sentiment downward; easing tensions between the US and Iran did not bring capital back into the crypto market.

4. Technical Weakness Confirmed

Daily high points continue to decline, MACD on 4-hour and daily charts shows both lines trending downward, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend; June’s high has nearly halved from the October 2025 peak of $126k, spreading panic sentiment in the market.

III. Short-term Bull-Bear Scenario Analysis (Today to This Week)

Pessimistic Scenario (Higher Probability)

If ETF outflows persist and US Treasury yields continue rising, breaking below the $61,000 support level, the next target is the $60,000 integer level, with an extreme test near the intra-year low of around $59,000. Leverage positions may trigger further chain liquidations, amplifying the decline.

Neutral Volatility Scenario

Hold the $61,000 support, trade within a narrow range of $61,000–$64,000, with weak sideways movement on low volume; rebounds are only technical corrections, unlikely to break through the $65,000 resistance.

Reversal Bullish Conditions (Very Difficult to Achieve in Short Term)

1. US CPI data significantly cools, and rate hike expectations rapidly decline;
2. BTC spot ETF experiences large net inflows in a single day;
3. Break and volume surpassing the $66,800 resistance level, but neither has clear catalysts today.

IV. Medium and Long-term Logic Differentiation

1. Medium-term (1–3 months): The trend is highly tied to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle. As long as the “higher interest rates persist longer” expectation remains, BTC is unlikely to see a major reversal, mainly oscillating and testing lows.

2. Long-term Cycle (Second half of 2026 to the 2028 halving): The scarcity fundamentals remain unchanged, and institutional long-term allocation narratives persist; industry leaders expect the 2028 halving to push prices to $500k–$1 million, but this logic cannot offset short-term liquidity contractions causing declines. Long-term positioning should be done in stages with strict risk control.

V. Practical Risk Reminder

1. Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high; the current bearish trend is clear, and short-term bottom-fishing carries very high risk. Heavy positions are not recommended.
2. The risk of liquidation in leveraged contracts is significant; many long positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. Reduce leverage or stay on the sidelines and observe.