21Shares Mid-Year Report: Bitcoin Has Not Seen a "Capitulation Sell-Off"! Holding Steady at the Average Cost, Eyes on $100k by Year-End

According to the mid-year crypto market report released by Swiss asset management firm 21Shares on the 24th, Bitcoin's (BTC) recent retracement pattern closely aligns with historical post-halving models. The report indicates that market funds are showing greater maturity, with no signs of capitulation selling, and maintains a positive outlook that Bitcoin will return to the $100k mark by the end of the year.
(Background summary: Bitcoin transferred to wife’s account “within minutes” and was deemed a gift? Korean tax authorities ordered a re-investigation)
(Additional background: BlackRock recommends: allocate “1-2% Bitcoin” in investment portfolios, the best risk diversification tool)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Familiar post-halving trend, no “capitulation sell-off” observed in the market
• Crypto ETP assets reach $140 billion, institutions maintain steady allocations
• Market expected to explode, RWA surges as Wall Street’s new favorite

Swiss asset management giant 21Shares released its latest mid-year crypto market report on Wednesday (24th), revisiting its industry forecast made last December. Although Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 50% from its October 2025 peak of approximately $126k (as of the report at 6:00 PM on June 24, with a price of about $62,300), 21Shares still maintains a bullish view, expecting Bitcoin to recover to $100k by the end of this year.

Familiar post-halving trend, no “capitulation sell-off” observed in the market

Regarding recent price corrections, the report states that Bitcoin’s current trend “still looks very familiar,” closely matching the oscillation patterns seen after past halvings. Notably, this correction’s magnitude is much lower than previous cycles, which often saw crashes exceeding 80%.

21Shares emphasizes that Bitcoin continues to hold above the average cost basis of investors, around $54,000, and there has been no sign of the typical capitulation sell-off seen in bear markets. The report interprets this optimistically: “This is a sign of a more mature market with more stable liquidity.”

Crypto ETP assets reach $140 billion, institutions maintain steady allocations

On institutional capital flows, the report shows that as of May 2026, the total assets under management (AUM) of global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) are about $140 billion, down roughly 15% year-to-date, with total holdings around 1.25 million BTC, about 8% below previous all-time highs.

21Shares analyzes that this scale decline is mainly due to price volatility rather than large-scale redemptions by institutions. Even though U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $3 billion, the underlying BTC holdings remain very close to cycle peaks. Additionally, institutions’ appetite for new products remains strong; for example, ETFs related to Hyperliquid attracted about $150 million in the first month after launch.

Market expected to explode, RWA surges as Wall Street’s new favorite

Beyond Bitcoin, the report also provides a comprehensive review of decentralized finance (DeFi), prediction markets, and tokenized assets (RWA):

• Prediction market explosion: By the end of May, trading volume in prediction markets reached $57.5 billion, surpassing half of the company’s original full-year forecast. Driven by the FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm elections, the full-year trading volume could reach $100 billion, even challenging the $200 billion mark.
• DeFi growth stalls: The total value locked (TVL) remains around $140 billion, similar to early-year levels, far below the optimistic forecast of $300 billion, with security vulnerabilities and hacking incidents being major obstacles to capital inflow.
• Layer 2 highly concentrated: Ethereum Layer 2 networks show high capital concentration, with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism accounting for up to 83% of Layer 2 DeFi TVL.
• RWA scale surges: Tokenized assets on public blockchains have reached $31 billion (including $15 billion in U.S. Treasury tokenizations); on permissioned networks like Canton, tokenized assets have surpassed an astonishing $350 billion.