经济日报:黄金已变成风险资产

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ME News 消息,5 月 20 日(UTC+8),文章称,随着国际金价在历史高位间剧烈波动,黄金已由传统意义上的避险资产蜕变为全球波动性最强的风险资产之一。同时,国际机构对金价走势的预期也出现较大分歧。黄金为何不再避险?根源有三。其一,交易极度拥挤。其二,流动性冲击的传导路径发生改变。资产普跌时,投资者面临追加保证金压力,黄金因流动性极佳,反而成为被优先抛售换取现金的资产,大量止损盘和量化抛售触发"下跌---抛售---再下跌"的负反馈。其三,定价逻辑发生根本性切换。黄金与利率的相关性重回高位。总之,黄金不再是避险工具,而是风险本身。金价持续走高的支撑因素正在不断松动,压制力量已暗流汇聚。由于国际金价此前明显涨过了头,未来也不排除跌过头的可能性。从中长期看,金价迟早会跌穿4000美元/盎司,在合理价位上才能保持稳定。而国际金价的变动对国内金价必然产生影响,因此,增强风险意识十分必要。(来源:金十)
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