$BTC | Update (4H)

This move to the downside doesn't look finished just yet. The first area of support I'm watching, where we could potentially form a higher low, sits around the 61.4k-60.6k region.

That highlighted grey box is pretty much the last line of defense for bulls if they want to reclaim momentum and push price higher into the start of next month. However, if we lose this grey box, then a move into the sub 60k region becomes highly likely.

We are currently trading below the weekly open. For continuation to the downside, it's important that we reject the weekly open on a revisit if we get one. On the other hand, reclaiming the weekly open would be another confirmation that a higher low is likely in place.

The overall structure doesn't necessarily look bullish to me. We broke down from the bear flag, retested the breakdown level, and got rejected multiple times from the bottom trendline.

Right now, we are ranging around the previous weekly low after sweeping it. These types of ranges at a major low/high usually suggest that momentum hasn't fully exhausted yet, as these ranges are formed when we fail to get enough momentum needed for price to reverse.

Therefore, as long as we remain below the weekly open, continuation to the downside remains the higher probability scenario heading into the monthly close.