$156 SPCX, is it a "bullish signal exhausted" sell-off, or the last shakeout in the "golden pit"?

First look at the surface: brutal, but not collapsing.

From an IPO price of 135 to 225, then back down to 156, erasing most of the gains. Down 17% in the past 5 days, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of 147-165, a typical "post-IPO surge and pullback" script.

But bond issuance is oversubscribed nearly 3 times, with cash reserves exceeding 100 billion. What does this indicate? Big funds are buying bonds, retail investors are selling stocks.

First thing: SpaceX issued 20 billion yuan in bonds, the market misunderstood.

SpaceX issued about $2-2.5 billion in investment-grade bonds to repay bridge loans and fund AI expansion. Once the news broke, the stock price plummeted.

Retail investors' understanding: The company is short on cash, run!

Institutional understanding: Credit quality is so good that oversubscribed 3 times, AI expansion needs funding, xAI integration is accelerating.

Bonds are snapped up wildly, stocks are hammered. The same company, two completely different valuations.

Second thing: xAI integration is the real long-term story.

By early 2026, all stocks will merge with xAI, integrating Grok, X platform, and Colossus supercomputers into SpaceX.

SpaceX is not just building rockets; it’s becoming a "space AI data center."

Starlink + AI = global computing power coverage, no dead spots.

The space data center concept is currently unique worldwide.

The market always pays for a story of "not yet profitable but will make crazy money in the future."

Third thing: Technical analysis has already reached a critical point.

147-150 USD is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level + POC volume cluster + previous gap support, a triple overlap.

After a large bearish candle on June 22-23, a small bullish rebound began — a typical "bad news exhausted" candlestick pattern.

But note: rebound volume is insufficient, buying still on the sidelines. 165 is the short-term critical line; a volume breakout above confirms a reversal. Falling below 147, the next target is IPO price 135.

Bull-bear showdown, you decide.

One side (bears):

Surged to 225 after IPO, typical FOMO top

Bond financing interpreted as "capital hunger"

Lock-up period approaching, selling pressure still exists

Lost 4.9 billion, PS over 100x, valuation too high

Short-term technicals show downward pressure, bear alignment

One side (bulls):

Bond oversubscribed 3x, institutional confidence in real money

xAI integration creates the "space + AI" global unique track

Cash reserves over 100 billion, ample liquidity

147-150 triple support, high probability of technical rebound

Elon Musk’s execution has been proven countless times

Key levels:

Resistance above: 160-165 → 176-190 → 225 (all-time high)

Support below: 150 → 147 (strong support) → 135 (IPO price)

Short-term traders:

Buy in stages within 147-150, stop-loss below 145. First target 165-170, second target 180-190. Watch 4H/1H charts, RSI divergence + volume increase = confirmed rebound.

Swing traders:

Wait for volume to stabilize above 165 before chasing, target 190-220. If it drops below 147, observe first, buy again near 135.

Long-term believers:

140-150 is the window for positioning. Build gradually, ignore short-term fluctuations.

Risk rule:

Daily volatility over 10% is normal, leverage no more than 5-10x.

Elon’s single tweet can reverse the trend.

Perpetual contracts: watch funding rates, holding overnight costs.

Strict stop-loss, survival is the priority.

SPCX now is like Tesla in 2020 —

Everyone said "too expensive, will fall" before the split, but it rose from 400 to 2000.

Every real innovation starts when "everyone thinks it’s too expensive."

If you didn’t sell at 225, are you cutting at 156? #0成本拿2股SK海力士 #Gate股票7x24小时交易 #SpaceX暴跌16%市值蒸发4000亿 $BTC $SPCX $ETH