Gong Youchai

The current market is in a state of “passive stabilization under macro pressure,” not an active upside push driven by easing. Strategically, it is recommended to observe and confirm signals, and avoid blindly chasing highs.
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Three main macro themes: Rate suppression still ongoing
Fed leaning hawkish: The economy is not yet weak enough to justify rate cuts; the dot plot has been revised, and the easing narrative is unlikely to restart in the short term
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Geopolitical risk easing: The Middle East ceasefire framework cools tail risks in oil prices, but the risk premium has not been fully eliminated
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Bank of Japan rate hike: BOJ raised rates to 1.0%, lifting global funding costs and weighing on overall risk appetite
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Data review: Long liquidations dominated, and the market’s capital dispersion is facing failure
Gap-like rout and clearing: After prices fell back from the weekly highs, long liquidations from June 17 to June 18 were significantly amplified. As the liquidation scale declined in the second half of the week, the market entered a low-volatility consolidation phase
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BTC core data: Spot ETF selling pressure has marginally eased, but after a brief turn back to positive on June 16, large net outflows reappeared from June 17 to June 18—no strong capital inflow has been seen yet
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ETH core data: In the first half of the week, prices surged and fell back around 1,790; after June 17, spot ETF funds quickly turned to net outflows, with clearly weaker support for absorption
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Key monitoring clues next week
U.S. PCE / Core PCE: Confirm whether energy inflation in CPI is transmitting into core inflation
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Fed officials’ remarks: See whether they continue to suppress rate-cut expectations after the June FOMC
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Hormuz Strait shipping recovery: Determine whether the decline in oil prices is sustainable
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