June 24 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News: Neutral leaning bearish, geopolitical easing offset by ETF outflows and macroeconomic concerns

Progress in Middle East negotiations (18-hour talks in Switzerland) eases geopolitical tensions, oil prices retreat (Brent < $80), benefiting risk assets.

Corporate coin hoarding continues, such as Strategy (MSTR) announcing on June 22nd the purchase of 520 BTC (about $39M), bringing total holdings to approximately $1.4B.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate path is uncertain (may stay high or raise slightly), combined with a tech stock pullback dragging down risk sentiment. No major positive catalysts, the market remains in a "waiting" mode.

🤯 Capital Flow:

US spot BTC ETF saw net outflows of about $68.3M yesterday (June 22), continuing several days of outflows (large redemptions in IBIT partially offset by fund inflows). Significant outflows over the past week/longer period (over $4B in several weeks record).

Institutional redemption pressure is evident (profit-taking + macro hedging), but corporate direct purchases (like MSTR) provide some hedging. In the long term, ETF holdings remain high, but short-term capital flow is bearish, limiting the rebound potential.

🤯 Technical Analysis:

Sorry I couldn't update the market analysis these past couple of days due to other matters, 🤝.

Honestly, just controlling the overall trend is enough; daily analysis isn't necessary. As long as the direction of the lines I draw doesn't change, I can keep using them. For example, I've been emphasizing that the upward rebound won't be very strong and may dip again, and yesterday it indeed went down, right? 🤔.

Currently, the market still needs to shake out; the second dip hasn't ended yet. The daily chart still focuses on the 61,000-60,000 range. As long as it doesn't break below 60,000, it's an opportunity. If it doesn't break, it will move sideways to shake out, while also watching for divergence opportunities on the daily chart.

Resistance: 64,000-64,700.