《紐時》爆 Meta 正開發預測市場 App「Arena」，祖克柏眼紅 Polymarket？

According to an exclusive report by The New York Times, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has ordered the development of a new standalone app called "Arena," officially entering the hot prediction markets. This app aims to challenge platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, initially adopting a points system and potentially leveraging Meta’s massive traffic of over 3.5 billion daily active users to drive growth.
(Background: Meta monitors employee computers for AI data leaks, prompting an emergency investigation)
(Additional context: Former Meta executives offer job advice for the AI era: a ten-year career plan is outdated; focus on these two things)

The explosive growth of prediction markets has now caught the attention of even Meta, the global social media giant. According to an exclusive report published by The New York Times on June 23, 2026, Zuckerberg has keenly sensed this emerging online craze and personally ordered the company to assemble a small development team to create a new smartphone application called "Arena."

The report states that Arena will be completely independent from Meta’s existing flagship platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. This move is seen as Meta’s direct counterattack against popular prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which are Web3 and financial platforms allowing users to bet on sports, political elections, and entertainment gossip, rapidly becoming one of the fastest-growing areas online.

Initially focusing on a "points system," with the possibility of real money betting in the future

Regarding product design and compliance considerations, two anonymous insiders told The New York Times that Arena will not initially allow users to place bets with real money. Instead, the app will introduce a "points system" similar to video game mechanics, enabling a broad user base to experience the fun and interaction of prediction markets with lower barriers to entry.

However, this does not mean Meta is abandoning deeper financial integration. Insiders reveal that the company has not ruled out the possibility of introducing real money betting in Arena in the future. More threatening is Meta’s plan to leverage its massive community of over 3.56 billion daily active users to aggressively promote this new app, which will undoubtedly pose significant competition to existing prediction market leaders.

Copying successful competitor models to find the next growth engine

Market analysis suggests that developing Arena aligns perfectly with Zuckerberg’s consistent business expansion strategy: closely monitoring emerging online social behaviors and quickly developing new types of applications. In the past, Meta successfully copied Snapchat’s "Stories" feature, leading to great success; now, with concerns that core social platforms may have reached saturation, swiftly following the prediction market trend is a logical step in seeking the next growth driver.

In addition to prediction markets, Meta is also testing a few other standalone apps internally. It is reported that another app called "Meta Photos" is under intense development, which will deeply integrate artificial intelligence (AI) technology to enable users to create new forms of media content.