Trump Claims Record Oil Flow Through Strait of Hormuz as Iranian Tankers Head to Asia

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that a record 19 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on June 22, calling it an "all-time RECORD" in a Truth Social post . He framed the development as a major diplomatic victory following the US-Iran memorandum signed last week, stating, "Oil prices are tumbling down, and the world is a much safer place!" .

The Strategic Shift Behind the Numbers

The surge in traffic follows a 14-point memorandum between the US and Iran that includes reopening the strategic waterway, which had come to a near standstill during the conflict that began on February 28 . Before the war, around 130 commercial vessels passed through the strait daily; during the conflict, that figure fell to as low as one vessel on some days .

In the five days following the agreement, commercial ship traffic rebounded to more than 20% of pre-war levels, with 144 vessels passing through the strait . US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that 67 ships passed through in a single day, with oil volumes "about equal to where we were before the war" .

Iranian Tanker Fleet En Route to Asia

According to maritime tracking data, at least four supertankers carrying a combined minimum of 7 million barrels of Iranian crude oil passed through the strait on Monday alone . Over the five-day period, more than 13 million barrels of Iranian crude crossed the waterway toward international buyers .

United Against a Nuclear Iran reports that approximately 15 large Iranian-registered tankers loaded with crude have left Iranian ports bound for East Asia . Significantly, these vessels are now sailing with their AIS transponders switched on, a departure from previous practices where they operated "dark" to evade detection .

The US Treasury issued a 60‑day general license (until August 21) authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil and petrochemicals . Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran secured waivers for oil exports and received partial release of frozen assets abroad .

Asia's Cautious Response

Despite Iran's urgency to re‑establish trade relationships with India, Japan, and South Korea, Asian buyers remain hesitant . According to Bloomberg, approximately 68 million barrels of crude and condensate were on the water as of June 22, with at least 80% lacking a clear destination .

Traders report that most Asian refiners are already well‑supplied, having secured alternative shipments during the months‑long blockade . Indian refiners have secured crude arrivals until August, and Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil stated it was not considering purchasing Iranian crude at this stage .

Kpler lead analyst Sumit Ritolia noted: "Asia is unlikely to commit to Iranian crude imports while US policy on sanctions continues to flip‑flop and the geopolitical situation remains highly fluid" .

Challenges Ahead

While the temporary waiver opens doors for Iranian oil sales beyond China, fundamental supply dynamics pose challenges. Benchmark Middle East grades like Dubai and Abu Dhabi's Murban are already in contango, suggesting short‑term oversupply . ING's Warren Patterson noted that "to see more meaningful upside in Iranian oil supply, sanctions relief would need to be more permanent" .

The 60‑day roadmap established by the initial memorandum aims to resolve outstanding issues—most notably, the future of Iran's nuclear programme and the terms of any lasting agreement . Until then, the Strait of Hormuz remains a barometer of both regional stability and global energy security.

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