Tracking real-time hot topics in the crypto world and seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Wednesday, June 24, 2026. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends ☀ Iron fans check-in 👍 Like and get rich 🍗🍗🌹🌹 The crypto market faces another heavy blow today. Bitcoin reached a high of 65,500 last night before falling all the way down, dropping to a recent low of around 61,800 during the lunch session due to news impacts; Ethereum is even weaker, continuously declining from around 1770, with a low of 1633, with intraday declines exceeding 6%. Currently, both are experiencing weak rebounds at the bottom, but the strength is clearly limited. This round of decline is not an isolated event but the result of macro expectations, US stock market crashes, and World Cup capital outflows resonating together.

1. Core logic of the plunge: AI narrative loosening triggers cross-market sell-offs

The trigger for this plunge was the collective collapse of US tech stocks. SpaceX (SPCX) stock plummeted over 16%, with a market cap falling below $2 trillion, nearly 30% down from its IPO high; SanDisk dropped over 11%, Micron over 11%; Intel and AMD both fell over 7%, with all 30 components of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index heavily hit.

The fundamental reasons are twofold:

First layer: Valuation correction of the AI bubble. There are widespread doubts about whether huge investments in AI infrastructure can translate into profits. Micron surged nearly 7% on strategic cooperation with Anthropic, while SpaceX announced debt financing, and core personnel left DeepMind’s AI department, further amplifying market concerns. Meanwhile, corporate capital expenditure in AI and tech this year has reached about $750 billion, much of which relies on debt financing, exposing leverage risks and capital cost issues. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recently fluctuated near levels seen during the internet bubble of 2000, which some analysts view as a warning sign of market overheating.

Second layer: Amplification effect of cross-market sell-offs. Institutions hold both US tech stocks and crypto assets in the same risk control accounts. When tech stocks plunge, causing net asset value declines and risk limits to tighten, the risk control system will simultaneously reduce BTC holdings to cover margins—forming a vicious cycle of “US stocks fall → crypto fall → US stocks fall further.” “So far this week, Bitcoin’s movement has been closely following US stock indices, especially the tech sector.”

2. Continued macro suppression: Repricing of rate hike expectations

The macro root cause of this decline can be traced back to the unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data on June 5. Non-farm jobs increased by 172,000 in May, nearly double the market consensus (about 85,000), with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before the end of the year surged from 48% to 70%.

On June 17, new Chair Waller presided over the FOMC for the first time, maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot significantly raised the median rate forecast for the end of 2026 from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, with inflation expectations revised up from 2.7% to 3.6%. Of the 18 policymakers, 9 now expect at least one rate hike in 2026. US banks are more aggressive, predicting rate hikes of 25 basis points in September, October, and December.

This has fundamentally changed the underlying logic of market operation: In the past two years, the market assumed “weak data = rate cuts = liquidity = rising risk assets,” but now, strong economic data means interest rates will stay high longer, and in a high-rate environment, AI concept stocks and crypto assets relying on “future growth stories” will face ongoing valuation reassessment pressure.

3. Crypto market outlook: capital outflows, bulls defeated
Bitcoin (BTC): surged to 65,500 then faced heavy selling, dropping to a low of 61,800, currently supported around 62,000-62,300. MACD remains below zero, all moving averages are in a bearish alignment, daily and 4-hour charts show all moving averages in a bearish configuration. Market prediction contracts on Kalshi indicate a growing expectation that “Bitcoin will stay above $56,000 on June 24.”

Ethereum (ETH): surged to 1,779 then sharply retraced to 1,633, down over 6% in 24 hours. ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to 0.027, the lowest in nearly two years—funds are rushing into Bitcoin for safety.

Funds: Over the past 30 days, institutional net outflows from stablecoins, spot BTC ETFs, and Strategy combined reached a record $8 billion. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling about $5.94 billion. Since June, ETF net outflows reached another $2.26 billion. The Fear & Greed Index is only 23, in “extreme fear,” approaching the most desperate moments of the 2022 bear market.

4. Seasonal outflows during the World Cup
Fund flows during the World Cup are also significant. Global betting volume reaches hundreds of billions of dollars, with large amounts of capital shifting from mainstream coins to sports betting and prediction markets. On-chain prediction markets (like Polymarket) also drain liquidity—funds move from mainstream coins to World Cup prediction contracts, representing internal capital shifts. Retail traders account for over 60% of intraday short orders, and during the World Cup, many traders stop watching the market, order books thin out, and depth decreases, making it easier for larger price spikes. Monthly trading volume of crypto VCs has fallen to its lowest since 2021.

5. Key levels and technical outlook
Bitcoin (BTC):

Resistance: 62,500-62,800 (short-term rebound resistance), 63,800-64,000 (previous consolidation platform)

Support: 61,800-62,000 (today’s low area), if broken, then 60k-60,500 (mid-term psychological level)

Ethereum (ETH):

Resistance: 1,670-1,680 (current rebound resistance), 1,700-1,720 (strong resistance)

Support: 1,620-1,630 (today’s low area), if broken, then 1,550-1,580

Polymarket currently assigns a 99.45% probability that Bitcoin will stay above $56,000 on June 24. Analysts warn that if it falls below $60k, the technical pattern may point toward $54,000.

Overall structure: Still in a “bearish-dominated, weak rebound” bottoming phase. The daily chart shows an extremely long upper shadow, indicating the short-term bullish rebound has ended. Bulls are weak, bears dominate the market, and the 4-hour chart shows a double-top reversal pattern with a series of large declines breaking short-term moving averages. The current slight rebound is merely a technical oversold correction with no reversal momentum.

6. Trading strategy

Trend: The large-cycle bearish structure remains intact; the small cycle is in a weak recovery after oversold conditions.

Positioning:

- Until resistance at 62,800 (BTC) or 1,680 (ETH) is broken, maintain a primarily short-term short bias during rebounds.

- If prices repeatedly stabilize around 61,500 (BTC) and 1,620 (ETH) without making new lows, consider small positions for short-term recovery trades.

- If volume breaks below support levels, target further downside to 60,000 (BTC) and 1,550 (ETH).

Position management:

- Liquidity is thinner during the World Cup, increasing pin risk; keep positions at 30%-50% of normal levels.

- Strictly set stop-losses, avoid holding through losses, and do not try to bottom-tick.

- Pay close attention to Micron’s earnings report (after US markets close on June 24) and PCE data, which will directly influence short-term crypto directions.

When good news piles up, be extra cautious—markets can be irrational. When AI narratives loosen, macro expectations tighten, and World Cup outflows resonate, patience and confirmation signals are more important than rushing to bottom fish. We are in a bottoming phase of the bear market, with fierce battles between bulls and bears. Surviving is more important than anything else.