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Deep Analysis: Why I Started Long-Term Positioning at 60k (Revised Version)

Those familiar with Little God of Wealth know I previously mentioned in an article that 60,000 is the strategic level for long-term long positions. Many people don’t understand and mock me as a “bagholder,” thinking “it’s obviously going to fall further, maybe to 185M, and you’re bottom fishing at 40.46M?” Today, let’s set aside the habitual “position size determines mindset” thinking. Based on the principle of persuading (or misleading) one by one, I will analyze from the perspectives of institutional costs, capital flows, technical indicators, and macro environment why 60,000 is your golden point for building a long-term position.

1. Capital Tide: Return After the Tidal Retreat

Recent capital movements show that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a concentrated withdrawal by institutional investors. The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced the longest continuous outflow in history from late May to early June—13 trading days. In the first 15 trading days before June, a total outflow of about $4.4 billion (roughly 59,351 BTC). It wasn’t until June 4 that a slight net inflow of about $30k was recorded, briefly ending this record-breaking outflow; as of June 18, the overall still showed net outflows, with a total outflow of about $167 million/week, the third consecutive week of net outflows, totaling approximately $421 million over three weeks. This large-scale redemption is not simply a reaction to falling prices but an active reduction of holdings by institutions before a major price drop. Historical data shows that when ETF fund outflows peak, it often signals that the market bottom is near—similar phenomena occurred at the bottoms of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Looking back to last month, Bitcoin’s price above 60,000 attracted a large amount of institutional bottom-fishing capital, leading to a “institutional bull” wave, with Bitcoin once surging to $82,000. Now, a month later, after significant capital outflows, institutions have again accumulated “ammunition.” Will they buy the dip again at 60,000? It’s worth paying attention. Also, don’t forget that millions of Bitcoin holders are “diving” and waiting, with unrealized losses acting like a spring—when rebound occurs, they will push the market higher.

2. Major Holders’ Cost: The Market’s Ballast

After reviewing capital flows, let’s look at the holdings costs of major players, especially Strategy (MicroStrategy). As the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, its holdings are fully transparent and serve as a benchmark for institutional cost analysis.

Total holdings: about 818,334 BTC (as of April 27, 2026)

Total cost: about $30k

Average cost per BTC: about $75,700

Recent purchase price ranges:

April 27: bought 3,273 BTC, spent $255M, average about $78,000

April 13: bought 13,927 BTC, spent $1B, average about $71,900

January 20: bought 22,305 BTC, spent $2.125B, average about $95,500 (bought at high)

January 12: bought 13,627 BTC, spent $1.247B, average about $91,700

Strategy’s average cost of $75,700 is clearly higher than the on-chain market average of $53,447 and above the current spot price (~$65,700), meaning Strategy is currently at about -10% unrealized loss overall. Saylor sold part of his holdings in late May, then resumed small-scale buying in early June, signaling complex signals.

Next, let’s look at the overall market’s average cost, focusing on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, which is the most authoritative on-chain indicator representing the weighted average price at which all BTC last moved on-chain. According to Glassnode’s latest data, as of June 17, 2026:

Market Realized Price: about $53,447 (Glassnode)

Current spot price: about $65,700, which is roughly +22% above the realized price

This indicates that the weighted average purchase cost of all Bitcoin holders is around $53,000–$54,000. Notably, this indicator has fallen from its high of about $62,120 in 2025, suggesting that recent large-scale low-cost holders have re-entered the market, and high-cost holders have sold (realizing losses), pulling the average down.

VanEck’s mid-June on-chain report further confirms: 54% of BTC supply is in profit, far below the 81% four-year average, placing it in the 9th–12th percentile of historical data; the proportion of loss-making supply is near the four-year high (95th percentile), indicating that many recent institutional holdings are in floating loss.

Next, institutional ETF costs: since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, net inflows have totaled about $6.18B (Farside data). However, the ETF’s average purchase cost is not simply total inflows divided by current holdings because of large inflows and outflows during periods of significant price volatility.

We can estimate the ETF’s weighted average cost from these dimensions:

ETF holdings change: VanEck reports that the ETF’s total assets under management (AUM) fell from a peak of $10.9 billion on May 5 to $7.88 billion on June 11—a decline of about 27%, due to both redemptions and price drops.

Timing of capital inflows: major inflows occurred in Q1 2024 (Bitcoin between $40,000–$70,000), late 2024 to early 2025 (Bitcoin between $90,000–$100,000+), and during the rebound in April–May 2025. Considering early low-cost buys and later high-price additions, the estimated weighted average cost of the ETF is around $65,000–$72,000.

Finally, let’s look at miners’ costs. Different data sources estimate the cost of mining one BTC with significant variance. JPMorgan’s full-cost calculation (electricity + operations + depreciation + management) is about $78,000 per BTC. No need to say more—miners are now losing about $10,000 per BTC mined, and the price has long reached miners’ shutdown levels. Besides transitioning to AI service providers, remaining miners find mining less profitable than buying on the market, and this buying power also acts as a solid support for Bitcoin’s price.

3. Market Leverage: Violent Liquidation of Leverage Bubble

Based on multiple data sources (mainly CoinGlass), the average daily liquidation amount in June was about $185 million–$200 million. According to CoinGlass’s BTC liquidation page, on June 22, 24-hour liquidations reached about $66.16 million, with a total of about $40.46 million over seven days. Coupled with the ongoing downward trend since June, most liquidations are likely long positions. Behind this high liquidation volume, trading volume and turnover rate have also increased significantly. The forced liquidation wave is accelerating market cleansing. When liquidation amounts surge, it means weak hands have been eliminated, leaving more stable positions. Historically, peaks in liquidation (such as during the 2022 FTX crisis) often occur near market bottoms, followed by rebounds. Current data also shows a recent surge in short positions; once the price reverses, short covering will amplify the upward momentum, providing additional support for bottom-fishing.

4. Technical Analysis: Focus on Two Indicators

Finally, on the technical side, short-term indicators on smaller timeframes are widely analyzed. Let’s focus on two key weekly indicators. The first is the five-wave downward structure on the weekly chart that Little God of Wealth mentioned before. It is now in the final wave, meaning the market could bottom at any time. The recent three weekly candles have formed a “Morning Star” pattern. The next step is to see if the resistance around 66,300 can be broken. If it is, it likely indicates the five-wave decline on the weekly chart is complete, and the “bear” is out.

The second important indicator is the 200-week moving average (~$62,000), which has historically provided strong support, with rebounds each time it was touched. Sentiment-wise, the Fear & Greed Index shows “Extreme Fear,” but extreme pessimism is often a buying signal.

5. Summary

So, buying at 60,000 means you’re buying cheaper than institutions and at a lower cost than miners. Additionally, data shows that top-tier traders’ long-short ratio has dropped from 2.56 to around 1.5. After aggressive liquidations, leverage risks are being cleared. You no longer need to worry about buying “for others’ pump.” Many say Bitcoin will fall further, waiting for 167M to go all-in, but what if it doesn’t drop below 66.16M? That’s the crypto world—main players never do what you expect. Bottoms often appear unexpectedly, at levels everyone still thinks will fall further. So, just buy at a price you consider cheap. From 120k down to 60k, facing discounted Bitcoin, what are you hesitating for?

6. How to Bottom-Fish Near 60,000?

1. Spot traders: I think you can go all-in without hesitation, with about 60% of your capital, keeping 40% in reserve to add if the market drops further. Besides the traditional Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want higher returns, allocate some high-value altcoins with real projects and active teams, especially in AI and RWA sectors, avoiding meme coins’ hype.

2. Futures traders: If you’re not satisfied with the low returns of spot trading, leverage is necessary. Keep leverage low. You can start with a small position above 60,000 for initial layout. If the market successfully breaks through and stabilizes above 66,500, you can add positions accordingly. Always set stop-losses, around 59,000. If it breaks below, step back and wait. Don’t get overexcited and open new positions, to avoid falling into a cycle of bottom-fishing and stop-losses.

Bottom-fishing isn’t a skill contest of who operates more precisely; it’s a game of mentality, strategy, and big-picture thinking. Don’t worry about whether you bought at the absolute lowest; consider whether you’re the one ultimately making money. And whether you can hold your positions when the next bull market arrives. Anyway, I wish everyone prosperity every day!